{
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        "USDJPY": "unavailable",
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        "GBPJPY": "unavailable",
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        "EURAUD": "unclear",
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        "USDCAD": "unclear",
        "GBPCAD": "unclear",
        "NZDJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURUSD": "unclear",
        "CHFJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURGBP": "unclear",
        "EURJPY": "unavailable",
        "NZDUSD": "unclear",
        "CADJPY": "unavailable",
        "GBPNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPAUD": "unclear",
        "AUDUSD": "unclear",
        "NZDCAD": "widening",
        "EURCAD": "unclear",
        "EURNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPUSD": "unclear"
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      "rates": {
        "AUD": 4.6,
        "USD": 3.875,
        "GBP": 3.75,
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        "CAD": 2.25,
        "JPY": 1.25,
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      "evidence": {
        "CHF": {
          "currency": "CHF",
          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 3,
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            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 0.99006
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                "value": 0.4512
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              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL",
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              "metric": "Employment",
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              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.03241
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                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.07263
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S",
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            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 1.88475
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                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.63205
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S",
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            "currency": "CHF",
            "bank": "Swiss National Bank",
            "short": "SNB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-24",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook",
            "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target",
            "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.",
            "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty",
            "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment",
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            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24"
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            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
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          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 3.96315
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.67194
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              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:34:35.697356+00:00"
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            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment rising",
              "signal": -1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 4.6463
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                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 4.39241
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:30:46.732579+00:00"
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            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.4195
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.28623
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S",
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "AUD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "short": "RBA",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-29",
            "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed",
            "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase",
            "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.",
            "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand",
            "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
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        },
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          "currency": "EUR",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 2,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
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            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.8
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 2.8
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              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:35:00.337884+00:00"
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            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.4
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              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:34:51.642749+00:00"
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            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.6
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0
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              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table",
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "EUR",
            "bank": "European Central Bank",
            "short": "ECB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-10",
            "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting",
            "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.",
            "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections",
            "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
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          "state": "hold",
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          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.03398
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3.22581
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              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:34:35.702686+00:00"
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              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.6
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:30:55.035780+00:00"
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            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.81974
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.08119
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:30:55.013663+00:00"
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "CAD",
            "bank": "Bank of Canada",
            "short": "BoC",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside",
            "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.",
            "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects",
            "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
            "evidence": "Official rate decision press release",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
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        "JPY": {
          "currency": "JPY",
          "state": "unavailable",
          "label": "Insufficient evidence",
          "reasons": [
            "A newer policy decision supersedes this guidance review"
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "JPY",
            "bank": "Bank of Japan",
            "short": "BoJ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-07-31",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening",
            "headline": "BoJ July outlook described scope to continue raising rates",
            "guidance": "The BoJ's July outlook said it would continue adjusting accommodation by raising rates in response to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This is conditional guidance, not a dated hike promise.",
            "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report",
            "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/highlight/ten202607.htm",
            "evidence": "Official July Outlook Report summary",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18"
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          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
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          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.3
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:34:35.709108+00:00"
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              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-07-31"
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-03-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-04-30"
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:16.681048+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.53261
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.64121
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:11.630576+00:00"
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "GBP",
            "bank": "Bank of England",
            "short": "BoE",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-17",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks",
            "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike",
            "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.",
            "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes",
            "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026",
            "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
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        "NZD": {
          "currency": "NZD",
          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 4,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 4.05819
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.108
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              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:34:35.713435+00:00"
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              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.6
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.4
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:20.028730+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.3601
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              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 1.05475
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:28.305181+00:00"
            }
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          "guidance": {
            "currency": "NZD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "short": "RBNZ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected",
            "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases",
            "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.",
            "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement",
            "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
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        "USD": {
          "currency": "USD",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
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          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.73768
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 3.53143
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:28.363153+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:28.248226+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.55049
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.61721
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-19T20:31:36.577796+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "USD",
            "bank": "Federal Reserve",
            "short": "Fed",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-16",
            "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path",
            "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase",
            "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.",
            "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections",
            "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm",
            "evidence": "Official FOMC statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-16"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        }
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        "AUDCHF": "unclear",
        "USDCHF": "unclear",
        "GBPCHF": "unclear",
        "AUDJPY": "unavailable",
        "NZDCHF": "unclear",
        "USDJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURCHF": "unclear",
        "GBPJPY": "unavailable",
        "AUDCAD": "unclear",
        "CADCHF": "narrowing",
        "EURAUD": "unclear",
        "AUDNZD": "unclear",
        "USDCAD": "unclear",
        "GBPCAD": "unclear",
        "NZDJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURUSD": "unclear",
        "CHFJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURGBP": "unclear",
        "EURJPY": "unavailable",
        "NZDUSD": "unclear",
        "CADJPY": "unavailable",
        "GBPNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPAUD": "unclear",
        "AUDUSD": "unclear",
        "NZDCAD": "widening",
        "EURCAD": "unclear",
        "EURNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPUSD": "unclear"
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      "rates": {
        "AUD": 4.6,
        "USD": 3.875,
        "GBP": 3.75,
        "NZD": 2.75,
        "EUR": 2.5,
        "CAD": 2.25,
        "JPY": 1.25,
        "CHF": 0
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          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 3,
          "reasons": [],
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              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
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                "value": 0.99006
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                "value": 0.4512
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:39.052433+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.03241
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.07263
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.183671+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 1.88475
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.63205
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.469131+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "CHF",
            "bank": "Swiss National Bank",
            "short": "SNB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-24",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook",
            "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target",
            "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.",
            "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty",
            "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "AUD": {
          "currency": "AUD",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 3.96315
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.67194
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:39.050053+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment rising",
              "signal": -1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 4.6463
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 4.39241
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.300735+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.4195
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.28623
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.401790+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "AUD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "short": "RBA",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-29",
            "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed",
            "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase",
            "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.",
            "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand",
            "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "EUR": {
          "currency": "EUR",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 2,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.8
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 2.8
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:41.386068+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:40.900895+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.6
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:41.880949+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "EUR",
            "bank": "European Central Bank",
            "short": "ECB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-10",
            "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting",
            "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.",
            "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections",
            "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "CAD": {
          "currency": "CAD",
          "state": "hold",
          "label": "Hold lean",
          "score": 0,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.03398
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3.22581
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:39.054709+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.6
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.666332+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.81974
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.08119
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.753135+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "CAD",
            "bank": "Bank of Canada",
            "short": "BoC",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside",
            "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.",
            "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects",
            "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
            "evidence": "Official rate decision press release",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "JPY": {
          "currency": "JPY",
          "state": "unavailable",
          "label": "Insufficient evidence",
          "reasons": [
            "A newer policy decision supersedes this guidance review"
          ],
          "drivers": [],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "JPY",
            "bank": "Bank of Japan",
            "short": "BoJ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-07-31",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening",
            "headline": "BoJ July outlook described scope to continue raising rates",
            "guidance": "The BoJ's July outlook said it would continue adjusting accommodation by raising rates in response to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This is conditional guidance, not a dated hike promise.",
            "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report",
            "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/highlight/ten202607.htm",
            "evidence": "Official July Outlook Report summary",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18"
          }
        },
        "GBP": {
          "currency": "GBP",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.3
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:39.057031+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-07-31"
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-03-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-04-30"
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.686836+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.53261
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.64121
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:42.934768+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "GBP",
            "bank": "Bank of England",
            "short": "BoE",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-17",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks",
            "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike",
            "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.",
            "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes",
            "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026",
            "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "NZD": {
          "currency": "NZD",
          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 4,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 4.05819
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.108
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:39.060976+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.6
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.4
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:43.183806+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.3601
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 1.05475
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:43.168179+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "NZD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "short": "RBNZ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected",
            "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases",
            "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.",
            "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement",
            "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "USD": {
          "currency": "USD",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.73768
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 3.53143
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:43.278093+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:43.453580+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.55049
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.61721
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:51:43.613545+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "USD",
            "bank": "Federal Reserve",
            "short": "Fed",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-16",
            "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path",
            "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase",
            "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.",
            "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections",
            "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm",
            "evidence": "Official FOMC statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-16"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        }
      }
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        "USDCHF": "unclear",
        "GBPCHF": "unclear",
        "AUDJPY": "unavailable",
        "NZDCHF": "unclear",
        "USDJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURCHF": "unclear",
        "GBPJPY": "unavailable",
        "AUDCAD": "unclear",
        "CADCHF": "narrowing",
        "EURAUD": "unclear",
        "AUDNZD": "unclear",
        "USDCAD": "unclear",
        "GBPCAD": "unclear",
        "NZDJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURUSD": "unclear",
        "CHFJPY": "unavailable",
        "EURGBP": "unclear",
        "EURJPY": "unavailable",
        "NZDUSD": "unclear",
        "CADJPY": "unavailable",
        "GBPNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPAUD": "unclear",
        "AUDUSD": "unclear",
        "NZDCAD": "widening",
        "EURCAD": "unclear",
        "EURNZD": "unclear",
        "GBPUSD": "unclear"
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      "rates": {
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        "USD": 3.875,
        "GBP": 3.75,
        "NZD": 2.75,
        "EUR": 2.5,
        "CAD": 2.25,
        "JPY": 1.25,
        "CHF": 0
      },
      "evidence": {
        "CHF": {
          "currency": "CHF",
          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 3,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 0.99006
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 0.4512
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES_COICOP2018@DF_PRICES_C2018_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.706633+00:00"
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              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.03241
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.07263
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              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCHQ156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.910509+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 1.88475
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.63205
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CHQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.338163+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "CHF",
            "bank": "Swiss National Bank",
            "short": "SNB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-24",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Conditional inflation outlook",
            "headline": "SNB held at zero as its conditional inflation forecast stayed in target",
            "guidance": "The SNB maintained a 0% policy rate. Its published inflation forecast assumed a constant policy rate and was within its price-stability range; that assumption is not a promise to hold future rates.",
            "watch": "Swiss inflation, franc exchange-rate developments and global uncertainty",
            "source": "https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20260924",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy assessment",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-24"
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          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
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          ]
        },
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          "currency": "AUD",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 3.96315
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.67194
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.700261+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment rising",
              "signal": -1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 4.6463
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 4.39241
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTAUM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.925678+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.4195
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.28623
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01AUQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.022063+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "AUD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of Australia",
            "short": "RBA",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-29",
            "stance": "Further tightening possible if needed",
            "headline": "RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase",
            "guidance": "After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.",
            "watch": "Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand",
            "source": "https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Board decision",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-29"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "EUR": {
          "currency": "EUR",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 2,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.8
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 2.8
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/prc_hicp_minr/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.907400+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/une_rt_m/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:32.589887+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.6
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0
              },
              "source": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/namq_10_gdp/default/table",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:33.224509+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "EUR",
            "bank": "European Central Bank",
            "short": "ECB",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-10",
            "stance": "Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting",
            "headline": "ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.",
            "watch": "Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections",
            "source": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260910~314e508016.en.html",
            "evidence": "Official monetary policy decisions",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-10"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "CAD": {
          "currency": "CAD",
          "state": "hold",
          "label": "Hold lean",
          "score": 0,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.03398
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3.22581
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.712384+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 6.4
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 6.6
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTCAM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.981507+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.81974
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.08119
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01CAQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.779762+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "CAD",
            "bank": "Bank of Canada",
            "short": "BoC",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Watching inflation upside",
            "headline": "BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation",
            "guidance": "The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.",
            "watch": "Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects",
            "source": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/fad-press-release-2026-09-02/",
            "evidence": "Official rate decision press release",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "JPY": {
          "currency": "JPY",
          "state": "unavailable",
          "label": "Insufficient evidence",
          "reasons": [
            "A newer policy decision supersedes this guidance review"
          ],
          "drivers": [],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "JPY",
            "bank": "Bank of Japan",
            "short": "BoJ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-07-31",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening",
            "headline": "BoJ July outlook described scope to continue raising rates",
            "guidance": "The BoJ's July outlook said it would continue adjusting accommodation by raising rates in response to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This is conditional guidance, not a dated hike promise.",
            "watch": "Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report",
            "source": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outlook/highlight/ten202607.htm",
            "evidence": "Official July Outlook Report summary",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-18"
          }
        },
        "GBP": {
          "currency": "GBP",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-08-01",
                "value": 3.3
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-05-01",
                "value": 3
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.715433+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-07-31"
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-03-01",
                "value": 4.9,
                "periodEnd": "2026-04-30"
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTGBM156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:34.686234+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.53261
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.64121
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01GBQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.254381+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "GBP",
            "bank": "Bank of England",
            "short": "BoE",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-17",
            "stance": "Rate hold · Upside inflation risks",
            "headline": "Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike",
            "guidance": "The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.",
            "watch": "UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes",
            "source": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2026/september-2026",
            "evidence": "MPC summary and minutes",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-17"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "NZD": {
          "currency": "NZD",
          "state": "tightening",
          "label": "Tightening lean",
          "score": 4,
          "reasons": [],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation accelerating",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 4.05819
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 3.108
              },
              "source": "https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?df[ag]=OECD.SDD.TPS&df[id]=DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:31.720678+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 5.6
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2025-10-01",
                "value": 5.4
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRHUTTTTNZQ156S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.728344+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Growth gives no strong directional signal",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.3601
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 1.05475
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01NZQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:35.760823+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "NZD",
            "bank": "Reserve Bank of New Zealand",
            "short": "RBNZ",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-02",
            "stance": "Conditional further tightening projected",
            "headline": "RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases",
            "guidance": "The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.",
            "watch": "New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement",
            "source": "https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-statement/monetary-policy-statement-filtered-listing-page/2026/sep-0209/monetary-policy-statement-september-2026/web-version",
            "evidence": "Official Monetary Policy Statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "tightening",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-02"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Moderate",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        },
        "USD": {
          "currency": "USD",
          "state": "mixed",
          "label": "Mixed evidence",
          "score": 1,
          "reasons": [
            "Economic and policy evidence does not give a consistent direction"
          ],
          "drivers": [
            {
              "metric": "Inflation",
              "text": "Headline inflation broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 3.73768
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 3.53143
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCNS",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:37.622264+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Employment",
              "text": "Unemployment broadly steady",
              "signal": 0,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-09-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-06-01",
                "value": 4.2
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:36.253684+00:00"
            },
            {
              "metric": "Growth",
              "text": "Two quarters of firm growth",
              "signal": 1,
              "latest": {
                "date": "2026-04-01",
                "value": 0.55049
              },
              "previous": {
                "date": "2026-01-01",
                "value": 0.61721
              },
              "source": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NAEXKP01USQ657S",
              "retrievedAt": "2026-10-20T02:53:36.517034+00:00"
            }
          ],
          "guidance": {
            "currency": "USD",
            "bank": "Federal Reserve",
            "short": "Fed",
            "publishedDate": "2026-09-16",
            "stance": "Recent rate increase · No fixed future path",
            "headline": "Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase",
            "guidance": "The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.",
            "watch": "US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections",
            "source": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm",
            "evidence": "Official FOMC statement",
            "notMarketPricing": true,
            "lean": "neutral",
            "reviewedAt": "2026-10-16",
            "latestDecisionDate": "2026-09-16"
          },
          "evidenceStrength": "Mixed",
          "limitations": [
            "Headline CPI only; no core inflation, wages, forecasts or market pricing in v1"
          ]
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}
