Rate Gap Methodology

Which rates do we compare?

Trade90 compares eight published monetary-policy benchmarks covering USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD. The US Federal Reserve sets a target range rather than a single number, so we use and label its midpoint. For the European Central Bank, we use the deposit facility rate.

These benchmarks are not identical instruments or instantly tradeable funding rates. They are a transparent macroeconomic comparison.

How do we calculate the signed gap?

Signed gap (basis points) = (base-currency benchmark % − quote-currency benchmark %) × 100.

For the ranking, Trade90 sorts each pair by absolute gap, meaning the size of the difference regardless of which currency has the higher benchmark. The pair remains in a consistent market-standard base/quote orientation.

A positive signed gap means the base currency has the higher policy benchmark; a negative gap means the quote currency has the higher benchmark. There are 28 unique, unordered combinations of eight currencies.

What does expected gap mean?

An expected gap would compare market-implied rate paths for the same horizon (3, 6 or 12 months), using verifiable, appropriately licensed overnight-indexed swaps or interest-rate futures and consistent observations. Market pricing is not a guaranteed future policy outcome.

Numerical gaps are conditional on verified feed availability. When forward-rate inputs are missing, stale, commercially restricted or not verified for both sides of a pair, the value is left blank. We do not substitute invented forecasts or central-bank commentary for market-implied prices.

How the future-rate comparison updates

Trade90's expected-rate calculation requires a publicly redistributable source that explicitly supplies market-implied central-bank policy-rate levels—or a rigorously validated conversion from licensed derivatives prices. We do not substitute unadjusted OIS par swap yields for future central-bank policy rates.

We calculate expected signed spread = (base expected policy-level percentage − quote expected policy-level percentage) × 100 basis points. For each maturity of 3, 6 or 12 months, both currencies must have source records recorded at compatible times, within 15 minutes of the declared snapshot. The public quote must not be older than 96 hours.

The expected gap's change from today's rate gap is shown in basis points, with widening, narrowing and sign reversal treated separately. Historic market-repricing tables compare genuine observations around 24 hours or 7 days apart, on a consistent horizon and provider methodology. If no such history exists, no revision is claimed.

Until suitable market data is licensed, readers can use dated, source-linked published meeting probabilities, economist surveys and bank policy commentary. These are always labelled separately and cannot be combined into a synthetic market-implied forward path.

What are the published outlook observations?

The Expected Rate Gaps tab also links to dated reporting about central-bank meeting probabilities, economist polls, and policymakers' comments. They are useful context but are not interchangeable. A reported futures-implied hold probability describes one meeting; a Reuters economist survey is an opinion distribution; an official statement describes policy guidance, not a tradable implied yield.

The observations were collected for the 15 October 2026 snapshot. They are not live quotes, may become outdated after a new release, and must not be transformed into quantitative 3-, 6- or 12-month pair gaps unless comparable forward inputs exist for both currencies with aligned timestamps and verified licensing.

Illustrative calculation only: a 28% chance of exactly one 25-basis-point hike and a 72% chance of no change would imply 7 basis points of expected movement at that meeting, not a certain 25-basis-point hike. Real probability trees may include more than two outcomes and require the full underlying distribution.

What Changed data

Current-rate changes reflect officially announced policy decisions. Changes in expectations would compare market-implied gap snapshots from two genuine observation times. These should be explicitly separated in the interface. Commentary about economic events should cite the underlying publication and not attribute market moves to an event without supporting evidence.

Official source registry

These links identify the bank publications used for the displayed snapshot. Decision date and effective date may differ. Open the original source to validate the benchmark.

When does Trade90 update its data?

The current official rate snapshot is a verified dated publication, not an automated continuously refreshed rate service. Policy statements and scheduled decisions use separate curated collection dates. Trade90 has no licensed numerical live forward-rate feed connected. For the actual refresh status, source classes, intended verification schedule, corrections and redistribution safeguards, read the Data Sources & Update Policy.

Limitations and risk

Policy-rate gaps are not foreign-exchange price forecasts or broker rollover yields. Market expectations can change before actual interest rates do, while exchange-rate movement, transaction costs and leverage can overwhelm nominal rate differences. Data may become outdated between verification cycles.

This website is intended for financial education and general market research only, not personalized investment recommendations.