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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · RBA / BoC

AUD/CAD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · AUD

RBA · Reserve Bank of Australia

4.60%

Cash rate target

Effective 30 Sept 2026

Official RBA rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
+235 bp
AUD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 235 bp

This is not a forecast of the AUD/CAD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · CAD

BoC · Bank of Canada

2.25%

Target for overnight rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official BoC rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Australia vs Canada

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind AUD/CAD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Australia · AUD 2.40%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 2.32%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-0.8%1.6%4.1%6.5%8.9%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: 2022 Q1 · 5.09%Australia: 2022 Q2 · 6.14%Australia: 2022 Q3 · 7.27%Australia: 2022 Q4 · 7.83%Australia: 2023 Q1 · 7.02%Australia: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%Australia: 2023 Q3 · 5.37%Australia: 2023 Q4 · 4.05%Australia: 2024 Q1 · 3.62%Australia: 2024 Q2 · 3.81%Australia: 2024 Q3 · 2.81%Australia: 2024 Q4 · 2.42%Australia: 2025 Q1 · 2.40%Canada: Nov 2021 · 4.72%Canada: Dec 2021 · 4.80%Canada: Jan 2022 · 5.14%Canada: Feb 2022 · 5.69%Canada: Mar 2022 · 6.66%Canada: Apr 2022 · 6.77%Canada: May 2022 · 7.73%Canada: Jun 2022 · 8.13%Canada: Jul 2022 · 7.59%Canada: Aug 2022 · 7.01%Canada: Sept 2022 · 6.86%Canada: Oct 2022 · 6.88%Canada: Nov 2022 · 6.80%Canada: Dec 2022 · 6.32%Canada: Jan 2023 · 5.92%Canada: Feb 2023 · 5.25%Canada: Mar 2023 · 4.30%Canada: Apr 2023 · 4.41%Canada: May 2023 · 3.36%Canada: Jun 2023 · 2.81%Canada: Jul 2023 · 3.27%Canada: Aug 2023 · 4.00%Canada: Sept 2023 · 3.80%Canada: Oct 2023 · 3.12%Canada: Nov 2023 · 3.12%Canada: Dec 2023 · 3.40%Canada: Jan 2024 · 2.86%Canada: Feb 2024 · 2.78%Canada: Mar 2024 · 2.90%Canada: Apr 2024 · 2.69%Canada: May 2024 · 2.87%Canada: Jun 2024 · 2.67%Canada: Jul 2024 · 2.53%Canada: Aug 2024 · 1.95%Canada: Sept 2024 · 1.64%Canada: Oct 2024 · 2.02%Canada: Nov 2024 · 1.89%Canada: Dec 2024 · 1.83%Canada: Jan 2025 · 1.90%Canada: Feb 2025 · 2.64%Canada: Mar 2025 · 2.32%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Australia · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:17 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.40%
2024 Q42.42%
2024 Q32.81%
2024 Q23.81%
2024 Q13.62%
2023 Q44.05%
2023 Q35.37%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q17.02%
2022 Q47.83%
2022 Q37.27%
2022 Q26.14%
2022 Q15.09%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Canada · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:20 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Mar 20252.32%
Feb 20252.64%
Jan 20251.90%
Dec 20241.83%
Nov 20241.89%
Oct 20242.02%
Sept 20241.64%
Aug 20241.95%
Jul 20242.53%
Jun 20242.67%
May 20242.87%
Apr 20242.69%
Mar 20242.90%
Feb 20242.78%
Jan 20242.86%
Dec 20233.40%
Nov 20233.12%
Oct 20233.12%
Sept 20233.80%
Aug 20234.00%
Jul 20233.27%
Jun 20232.81%
May 20233.36%
Apr 20234.41%
Mar 20234.30%
Feb 20235.25%
Jan 20235.92%
Dec 20226.32%
Nov 20226.80%
Oct 20226.88%
Sept 20226.86%
Aug 20227.01%
Jul 20227.59%
Jun 20228.13%
May 20227.73%
Apr 20226.77%
Mar 20226.66%
Feb 20225.69%
Jan 20225.14%
Dec 20214.80%
Nov 20214.72%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Australia · AUD 4.65%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 6.40%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.7%1.4%3.5%5.7%7.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: Nov 2021 · 4.63%Australia: Dec 2021 · 4.21%Australia: Jan 2022 · 4.17%Australia: Feb 2022 · 4.03%Australia: Mar 2022 · 3.99%Australia: Apr 2022 · 3.86%Australia: May 2022 · 3.95%Australia: Jun 2022 · 3.62%Australia: Jul 2022 · 3.46%Australia: Aug 2022 · 3.52%Australia: Sept 2022 · 3.59%Australia: Oct 2022 · 3.43%Australia: Nov 2022 · 3.52%Australia: Dec 2022 · 3.53%Australia: Jan 2023 · 3.66%Australia: Feb 2023 · 3.61%Australia: Mar 2023 · 3.60%Australia: Apr 2023 · 3.71%Australia: May 2023 · 3.60%Australia: Jun 2023 · 3.53%Australia: Jul 2023 · 3.73%Australia: Aug 2023 · 3.66%Australia: Sept 2023 · 3.55%Australia: Oct 2023 · 3.77%Australia: Nov 2023 · 3.93%Australia: Dec 2023 · 3.99%Australia: Jan 2024 · 4.10%Australia: Feb 2024 · 3.74%Australia: Mar 2024 · 3.91%Australia: Apr 2024 · 4.09%Australia: May 2024 · 4.02%Australia: Jun 2024 · 4.05%Australia: Jul 2024 · 4.21%Australia: Aug 2024 · 4.11%Australia: Sept 2024 · 4.00%Australia: Oct 2024 · 4.08%Australia: Nov 2024 · 3.93%Australia: Dec 2024 · 4.00%Australia: Jan 2025 · 4.13%Australia: Feb 2025 · 4.08%Australia: Mar 2025 · 4.09%Australia: Apr 2025 · 4.06%Australia: May 2025 · 4.11%Australia: Jun 2025 · 4.34%Australia: Jul 2025 · 4.26%Australia: Aug 2025 · 4.22%Australia: Sept 2025 · 4.42%Australia: Oct 2025 · 4.32%Australia: Nov 2025 · 4.32%Australia: Dec 2025 · 4.12%Australia: Jan 2026 · 4.08%Australia: Feb 2026 · 4.31%Australia: Mar 2026 · 4.29%Australia: Apr 2026 · 4.50%Australia: May 2026 · 4.39%Australia: Jun 2026 · 4.45%Australia: Jul 2026 · 4.48%Australia: Aug 2026 · 4.65%Canada: Nov 2021 · 6.10%Canada: Dec 2021 · 5.90%Canada: Jan 2022 · 6.40%Canada: Feb 2022 · 5.50%Canada: Mar 2022 · 5.40%Canada: Apr 2022 · 5.40%Canada: May 2022 · 5.20%Canada: Jun 2022 · 4.90%Canada: Jul 2022 · 4.80%Canada: Aug 2022 · 5.20%Canada: Sept 2022 · 5.10%Canada: Oct 2022 · 5.10%Canada: Nov 2022 · 5.00%Canada: Dec 2022 · 5.00%Canada: Jan 2023 · 5.10%Canada: Feb 2023 · 5.20%Canada: Mar 2023 · 5.10%Canada: Apr 2023 · 5.10%Canada: May 2023 · 5.20%Canada: Jun 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Jul 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Aug 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Sept 2023 · 5.50%Canada: Oct 2023 · 5.70%Canada: Nov 2023 · 5.80%Canada: Dec 2023 · 5.80%Canada: Jan 2024 · 5.70%Canada: Feb 2024 · 5.90%Canada: Mar 2024 · 6.10%Canada: Apr 2024 · 6.20%Canada: May 2024 · 6.30%Canada: Jun 2024 · 6.40%Canada: Jul 2024 · 6.40%Canada: Aug 2024 · 6.60%Canada: Sept 2024 · 6.50%Canada: Oct 2024 · 6.60%Canada: Nov 2024 · 7.00%Canada: Dec 2024 · 6.70%Canada: Jan 2025 · 6.70%Canada: Feb 2025 · 6.60%Canada: Mar 2025 · 6.80%Canada: Apr 2025 · 6.90%Canada: May 2025 · 7.00%Canada: Jun 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Jul 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Aug 2025 · 7.10%Canada: Sept 2025 · 7.10%Canada: Oct 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Nov 2025 · 6.60%Canada: Dec 2025 · 6.80%Canada: Jan 2026 · 6.50%Canada: Feb 2026 · 6.70%Canada: Mar 2026 · 6.70%Canada: Apr 2026 · 6.90%Canada: May 2026 · 6.60%Canada: Jun 2026 · 6.50%Canada: Jul 2026 · 6.40%Canada: Aug 2026 · 6.40%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20264.65%
Jul 20264.48%
Jun 20264.45%
May 20264.39%
Apr 20264.50%
Mar 20264.29%
Feb 20264.31%
Jan 20264.08%
Dec 20254.12%
Nov 20254.32%
Oct 20254.32%
Sept 20254.42%
Aug 20254.22%
Jul 20254.26%
Jun 20254.34%
May 20254.11%
Apr 20254.06%
Mar 20254.09%
Feb 20254.08%
Jan 20254.13%
Dec 20244.00%
Nov 20243.93%
Oct 20244.08%
Sept 20244.00%
Aug 20244.11%
Jul 20244.21%
Jun 20244.05%
May 20244.02%
Apr 20244.09%
Mar 20243.91%
Feb 20243.74%
Jan 20244.10%
Dec 20233.99%
Nov 20233.93%
Oct 20233.77%
Sept 20233.55%
Aug 20233.66%
Jul 20233.73%
Jun 20233.53%
May 20233.60%
Apr 20233.71%
Mar 20233.60%
Feb 20233.61%
Jan 20233.66%
Dec 20223.53%
Nov 20223.52%
Oct 20223.43%
Sept 20223.59%
Aug 20223.52%
Jul 20223.46%
Jun 20223.62%
May 20223.95%
Apr 20223.86%
Mar 20223.99%
Feb 20224.03%
Jan 20224.17%
Dec 20214.21%
Nov 20214.63%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada

Source updated: 2026-09-15 3:14 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20266.40%
Jul 20266.40%
Jun 20266.50%
May 20266.60%
Apr 20266.90%
Mar 20266.70%
Feb 20266.70%
Jan 20266.50%
Dec 20256.80%
Nov 20256.60%
Oct 20256.90%
Sept 20257.10%
Aug 20257.10%
Jul 20256.90%
Jun 20256.90%
May 20257.00%
Apr 20256.90%
Mar 20256.80%
Feb 20256.60%
Jan 20256.70%
Dec 20246.70%
Nov 20247.00%
Oct 20246.60%
Sept 20246.50%
Aug 20246.60%
Jul 20246.40%
Jun 20246.40%
May 20246.30%
Apr 20246.20%
Mar 20246.10%
Feb 20245.90%
Jan 20245.70%
Dec 20235.80%
Nov 20235.80%
Oct 20235.70%
Sept 20235.50%
Aug 20235.40%
Jul 20235.40%
Jun 20235.40%
May 20235.20%
Apr 20235.10%
Mar 20235.10%
Feb 20235.20%
Jan 20235.10%
Dec 20225.00%
Nov 20225.00%
Oct 20225.10%
Sept 20225.10%
Aug 20225.20%
Jul 20224.80%
Jun 20224.90%
May 20225.20%
Apr 20225.40%
Mar 20225.40%
Feb 20225.50%
Jan 20226.40%
Dec 20215.90%
Nov 20216.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Australia · AUD 0.42%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 0.82%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.4%0.0%0.4%0.9%1.3%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: 2022 Q1 · 1.00%Australia: 2022 Q2 · 0.90%Australia: 2022 Q3 · 0.46%Australia: 2022 Q4 · 0.85%Australia: 2023 Q1 · 0.57%Australia: 2023 Q2 · 0.35%Australia: 2023 Q3 · 0.37%Australia: 2023 Q4 · 0.03%Australia: 2024 Q1 · 0.34%Australia: 2024 Q2 · 0.17%Australia: 2024 Q3 · 0.27%Australia: 2024 Q4 · 0.44%Australia: 2025 Q1 · 0.39%Australia: 2025 Q2 · 0.78%Australia: 2025 Q3 · 0.50%Australia: 2025 Q4 · 0.91%Australia: 2026 Q1 · 0.29%Australia: 2026 Q2 · 0.42%Canada: 2022 Q1 · 1.04%Canada: 2022 Q2 · 1.14%Canada: 2022 Q3 · 0.81%Canada: 2022 Q4 · 0.06%Canada: 2023 Q1 · 1.05%Canada: 2023 Q2 · 0.16%Canada: 2023 Q3 · 0.05%Canada: 2023 Q4 · 0.05%Canada: 2024 Q1 · 0.73%Canada: 2024 Q2 · 0.82%Canada: 2024 Q3 · 0.82%Canada: 2024 Q4 · 0.70%Canada: 2025 Q1 · 0.72%Canada: 2025 Q2 · -0.24%Canada: 2025 Q3 · 0.47%Canada: 2025 Q4 · -0.25%Canada: 2026 Q1 · 0.08%Canada: 2026 Q2 · 0.82%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.42%
2026 Q10.29%
2025 Q40.91%
2025 Q30.50%
2025 Q20.78%
2025 Q10.39%
2024 Q40.44%
2024 Q30.27%
2024 Q20.17%
2024 Q10.34%
2023 Q40.03%
2023 Q30.37%
2023 Q20.35%
2023 Q10.57%
2022 Q40.85%
2022 Q30.46%
2022 Q20.90%
2022 Q11.00%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.82%
2026 Q10.08%
2025 Q4-0.25%
2025 Q30.47%
2025 Q2-0.24%
2025 Q10.72%
2024 Q40.70%
2024 Q30.82%
2024 Q20.82%
2024 Q10.73%
2023 Q40.05%
2023 Q30.05%
2023 Q20.16%
2023 Q11.05%
2022 Q40.06%
2022 Q30.81%
2022 Q21.14%
2022 Q11.04%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected AUD/CAD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · AUD/CAD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

CAD · BoCScheduled

Policy announcement date

Rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Overnight-rate target decision and Monetary Policy Report when scheduled

Official BoC calendar ↗
AUD · RBAScheduled

Meeting: 2 Nov 2026–3 Nov 2026 · Decision on final day

Monetary Policy Board decision

What to watch

Cash-rate target decision, policy statement and economic outlook

Official RBA calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · AUD/CAD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

AUD · RBA
Further tightening possible if needed

RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase

After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.

What could change the outlook?

Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand

Official Monetary Policy Board decision ↗
CAD · BoC
Rate hold · Watching inflation upside

BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation

The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.

What could change the outlook?

Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects

Official rate decision press release ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · AUD/CAD

Only RBA and BoC: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to AUD/CAD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in AUD/CAD.

AUD · RBA Rate decision

RBA raises Cash rate target · 4.60%

RBA raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected cash rate target is 4.60%. Effective 2026-09-30.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBA publication ↗
CAD · BoC Minutes

BoC releases September policy deliberations

The Bank of Canada's Governing Council discussed inflation risks, high energy costs, trade uncertainty and economic activity before keeping the overnight target at 2.25%. The record reports deliberations, not a new rate change.

What this publication confirms: The council weighed elevated inflation risks against economic uncertainty.
Official BoC publication ↗
CAD · BoC Rate decision

BoC holds Target for overnight rate · 2.25%

BoC kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected target for overnight rate is 2.25%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official BoC publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for AUD/CAD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for AUD/CAD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the AUD/CAD Policy-Rate Gap Means

AUD/CAD compares the AUD (Australia) and CAD (Canada) monetary-policy benchmarks. AUD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +235 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For AUD, monitor Australian labour-market data, quarterly inflation and RBA assessments. For CAD, monitor Canadian inflation, employment and Bank of Canada deliberations. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares RBA cash rate target against overnight-rate target. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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