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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · RBA / RBNZ

AUD/NZD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · AUD

RBA · Reserve Bank of Australia

4.60%

Cash rate target

Effective 30 Sept 2026

Official RBA rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
+185 bp
AUD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 185 bp

This is not a forecast of the AUD/NZD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · NZD

RBNZ · Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%

Official Cash Rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official RBNZ rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Australia vs New Zealand

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind AUD/NZD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Australia · AUD 2.40%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 2.53%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-0.8%1.6%3.9%6.3%8.6%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: 2022 Q1 · 5.09%Australia: 2022 Q2 · 6.14%Australia: 2022 Q3 · 7.27%Australia: 2022 Q4 · 7.83%Australia: 2023 Q1 · 7.02%Australia: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%Australia: 2023 Q3 · 5.37%Australia: 2023 Q4 · 4.05%Australia: 2024 Q1 · 3.62%Australia: 2024 Q2 · 3.81%Australia: 2024 Q3 · 2.81%Australia: 2024 Q4 · 2.42%Australia: 2025 Q1 · 2.40%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 6.93%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 7.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 7.23%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 7.22%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 6.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 5.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.66%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 3.33%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 2.15%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 2.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 2.53%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Australia · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:17 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.40%
2024 Q42.42%
2024 Q32.81%
2024 Q23.81%
2024 Q13.62%
2023 Q44.05%
2023 Q35.37%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q17.02%
2022 Q47.83%
2022 Q37.27%
2022 Q26.14%
2022 Q15.09%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for New Zealand · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:16 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.53%
2024 Q42.22%
2024 Q32.15%
2024 Q23.33%
2024 Q14.02%
2023 Q44.66%
2023 Q35.65%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q16.65%
2022 Q47.22%
2022 Q37.23%
2022 Q27.30%
2022 Q16.93%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Australia · AUD 4.65%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 5.60%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.6%1.1%2.8%4.5%6.2%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: Nov 2021 · 4.63%Australia: Dec 2021 · 4.21%Australia: Jan 2022 · 4.17%Australia: Feb 2022 · 4.03%Australia: Mar 2022 · 3.99%Australia: Apr 2022 · 3.86%Australia: May 2022 · 3.95%Australia: Jun 2022 · 3.62%Australia: Jul 2022 · 3.46%Australia: Aug 2022 · 3.52%Australia: Sept 2022 · 3.59%Australia: Oct 2022 · 3.43%Australia: Nov 2022 · 3.52%Australia: Dec 2022 · 3.53%Australia: Jan 2023 · 3.66%Australia: Feb 2023 · 3.61%Australia: Mar 2023 · 3.60%Australia: Apr 2023 · 3.71%Australia: May 2023 · 3.60%Australia: Jun 2023 · 3.53%Australia: Jul 2023 · 3.73%Australia: Aug 2023 · 3.66%Australia: Sept 2023 · 3.55%Australia: Oct 2023 · 3.77%Australia: Nov 2023 · 3.93%Australia: Dec 2023 · 3.99%Australia: Jan 2024 · 4.10%Australia: Feb 2024 · 3.74%Australia: Mar 2024 · 3.91%Australia: Apr 2024 · 4.09%Australia: May 2024 · 4.02%Australia: Jun 2024 · 4.05%Australia: Jul 2024 · 4.21%Australia: Aug 2024 · 4.11%Australia: Sept 2024 · 4.00%Australia: Oct 2024 · 4.08%Australia: Nov 2024 · 3.93%Australia: Dec 2024 · 4.00%Australia: Jan 2025 · 4.13%Australia: Feb 2025 · 4.08%Australia: Mar 2025 · 4.09%Australia: Apr 2025 · 4.06%Australia: May 2025 · 4.11%Australia: Jun 2025 · 4.34%Australia: Jul 2025 · 4.26%Australia: Aug 2025 · 4.22%Australia: Sept 2025 · 4.42%Australia: Oct 2025 · 4.32%Australia: Nov 2025 · 4.32%Australia: Dec 2025 · 4.12%Australia: Jan 2026 · 4.08%Australia: Feb 2026 · 4.31%Australia: Mar 2026 · 4.29%Australia: Apr 2026 · 4.50%Australia: May 2026 · 4.39%Australia: Jun 2026 · 4.45%Australia: Jul 2026 · 4.48%Australia: Aug 2026 · 4.65%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 3.40%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 3.50%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 3.70%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 3.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.00%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.40%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 4.70%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 4.90%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 5.10%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 5.30%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 5.60%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Australia

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20264.65%
Jul 20264.48%
Jun 20264.45%
May 20264.39%
Apr 20264.50%
Mar 20264.29%
Feb 20264.31%
Jan 20264.08%
Dec 20254.12%
Nov 20254.32%
Oct 20254.32%
Sept 20254.42%
Aug 20254.22%
Jul 20254.26%
Jun 20254.34%
May 20254.11%
Apr 20254.06%
Mar 20254.09%
Feb 20254.08%
Jan 20254.13%
Dec 20244.00%
Nov 20243.93%
Oct 20244.08%
Sept 20244.00%
Aug 20244.11%
Jul 20244.21%
Jun 20244.05%
May 20244.02%
Apr 20244.09%
Mar 20243.91%
Feb 20243.74%
Jan 20244.10%
Dec 20233.99%
Nov 20233.93%
Oct 20233.77%
Sept 20233.55%
Aug 20233.66%
Jul 20233.73%
Jun 20233.53%
May 20233.60%
Apr 20233.71%
Mar 20233.60%
Feb 20233.61%
Jan 20233.66%
Dec 20223.53%
Nov 20223.52%
Oct 20223.43%
Sept 20223.59%
Aug 20223.52%
Jul 20223.46%
Jun 20223.62%
May 20223.95%
Apr 20223.86%
Mar 20223.99%
Feb 20224.03%
Jan 20224.17%
Dec 20214.21%
Nov 20214.63%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-08-17 3:04 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q25.60%
2026 Q15.40%
2025 Q45.40%
2025 Q35.30%
2025 Q25.20%
2025 Q15.20%
2024 Q45.10%
2024 Q34.90%
2024 Q24.70%
2024 Q14.40%
2023 Q44.00%
2023 Q33.90%
2023 Q23.70%
2023 Q13.50%
2022 Q43.40%
2022 Q33.30%
2022 Q23.30%
2022 Q13.30%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Australia · AUD 0.42%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.6%-0.5%0.6%1.7%2.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Australia: 2022 Q1 · 1.00%Australia: 2022 Q2 · 0.90%Australia: 2022 Q3 · 0.46%Australia: 2022 Q4 · 0.85%Australia: 2023 Q1 · 0.57%Australia: 2023 Q2 · 0.35%Australia: 2023 Q3 · 0.37%Australia: 2023 Q4 · 0.03%Australia: 2024 Q1 · 0.34%Australia: 2024 Q2 · 0.17%Australia: 2024 Q3 · 0.27%Australia: 2024 Q4 · 0.44%Australia: 2025 Q1 · 0.39%Australia: 2025 Q2 · 0.78%Australia: 2025 Q3 · 0.50%Australia: 2025 Q4 · 0.91%Australia: 2026 Q1 · 0.29%Australia: 2026 Q2 · 0.42%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 0.03%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 1.25%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 2.42%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 0.29%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · -0.28%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 0.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · -0.12%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 0.42%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · -0.18%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 0.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · -1.21%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 0.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 0.81%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · -0.47%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 1.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 0.34%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 1.05%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Australia

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Australia

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Australia real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.42%
2026 Q10.29%
2025 Q40.91%
2025 Q30.50%
2025 Q20.78%
2025 Q10.39%
2024 Q40.44%
2024 Q30.27%
2024 Q20.17%
2024 Q10.34%
2023 Q40.03%
2023 Q30.37%
2023 Q20.35%
2023 Q10.57%
2022 Q40.85%
2022 Q30.46%
2022 Q20.90%
2022 Q11.00%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q11.05%
2025 Q40.34%
2025 Q31.22%
2025 Q2-0.47%
2025 Q10.81%
2024 Q40.20%
2024 Q3-1.21%
2024 Q20.02%
2024 Q1-0.18%
2023 Q40.42%
2023 Q3-0.12%
2023 Q20.90%
2023 Q1-0.28%
2022 Q40.29%
2022 Q32.42%
2022 Q21.25%
2022 Q10.03%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected AUD/NZD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · AUD/NZD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

NZD · RBNZScheduled

Policy announcement date

OCR decision and Monetary Policy Review

What to watch

Official Cash Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Review or Statement

Official RBNZ calendar ↗
AUD · RBAScheduled

Meeting: 2 Nov 2026–3 Nov 2026 · Decision on final day

Monetary Policy Board decision

What to watch

Cash-rate target decision, policy statement and economic outlook

Official RBA calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · AUD/NZD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

AUD · RBA
Further tightening possible if needed

RBA raised its cash target and left room for another increase

After raising its cash-rate target to 4.60%, the RBA said inflation was still too high and that it could increase rates further if necessary. Its next decision remains data-dependent.

What could change the outlook?

Australian inflation, wages, employment and evidence of slowing demand

Official Monetary Policy Board decision ↗
NZD · RBNZ
Conditional further tightening projected

RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases

The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.

What could change the outlook?

New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement

Official Monetary Policy Statement ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · AUD/NZD

Only RBA and RBNZ: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to AUD/NZD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in AUD/NZD.

AUD · RBA Rate decision

RBA raises Cash rate target · 4.60%

RBA raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected cash rate target is 4.60%. Effective 2026-09-30.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBA publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Rate decision

RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate · 2.75%

RBNZ raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected official cash rate is 2.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Policy report

RBNZ publishes September Monetary Policy Statement

The RBNZ explained its decision to increase the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, alongside its assessment of inflation, economic activity and risks. Its policy projections are not identical to market-implied rates.

What this publication confirms: Official inflation and activity outlook alongside the OCR decision.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for AUD/NZD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for AUD/NZD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the AUD/NZD Policy-Rate Gap Means

AUD/NZD compares the AUD (Australia) and NZD (New Zealand) monetary-policy benchmarks. AUD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +185 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For AUD, monitor Australian labour-market data, quarterly inflation and RBA assessments. For NZD, monitor New Zealand CPI, labour data and RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares RBA cash rate target against Official Cash Rate. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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