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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · RBNZ / BoJ

NZD/JPY Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Bank of Japan. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · NZD

RBNZ · Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%

Official Cash Rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official RBNZ rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
+150 bp
NZD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 150 bp

This is not a forecast of the NZD/JPY exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · JPY

BoJ · Bank of Japan

1.25%

Complementary deposit facility interest rate

Effective 24 Sept 2026

Official BoJ rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

New Zealand vs Japan

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind NZD/JPY.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

New Zealand · NZD 2.53%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY -0.40%Jun 2021 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-0.7%1.5%3.7%5.8%8.0%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 6.93%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 7.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 7.23%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 7.22%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 6.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 5.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.66%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 3.33%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 2.15%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 2.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 2.53%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for New Zealand · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:16 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.53%
2024 Q42.22%
2024 Q32.15%
2024 Q23.33%
2024 Q14.02%
2023 Q44.66%
2023 Q35.65%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q16.65%
2022 Q47.22%
2022 Q37.23%
2022 Q27.30%
2022 Q16.93%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Japan · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2024-05-15 2:00 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan inflation — selected range
PeriodValue

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

New Zealand · NZD 5.60%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY 2.50%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.6%1.1%2.8%4.5%6.2%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 3.40%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 3.50%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 3.70%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 3.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.00%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.40%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 4.70%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 4.90%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 5.10%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 5.30%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 5.60%Japan: Nov 2021 · 2.80%Japan: Dec 2021 · 2.70%Japan: Jan 2022 · 2.80%Japan: Feb 2022 · 2.70%Japan: Mar 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Apr 2022 · 2.60%Japan: May 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Jun 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Jul 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Aug 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Sept 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Nov 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Dec 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2023 · 2.70%Japan: Apr 2023 · 2.60%Japan: May 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Aug 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Sept 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Nov 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Dec 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Apr 2024 · 2.60%Japan: May 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Jun 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2024 · 2.70%Japan: Aug 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Sept 2024 · 2.40%Japan: Oct 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Nov 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Dec 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2025 · 2.40%Japan: Mar 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Apr 2025 · 2.50%Japan: May 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2025 · 2.40%Japan: Aug 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Sept 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Nov 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Dec 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Jan 2026 · 2.70%Japan: Feb 2026 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2026 · 2.70%Japan: Apr 2026 · 2.50%Japan: May 2026 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2026 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2026 · 2.40%Japan: Aug 2026 · 2.50%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-08-17 3:04 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q25.60%
2026 Q15.40%
2025 Q45.40%
2025 Q35.30%
2025 Q25.20%
2025 Q15.20%
2024 Q45.10%
2024 Q34.90%
2024 Q24.70%
2024 Q14.40%
2023 Q44.00%
2023 Q33.90%
2023 Q23.70%
2023 Q13.50%
2022 Q43.40%
2022 Q33.30%
2022 Q23.30%
2022 Q13.30%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20262.50%
Jul 20262.40%
Jun 20262.50%
May 20262.50%
Apr 20262.50%
Mar 20262.70%
Feb 20262.60%
Jan 20262.70%
Dec 20252.60%
Nov 20252.60%
Oct 20252.60%
Sept 20252.60%
Aug 20252.60%
Jul 20252.40%
Jun 20252.50%
May 20252.50%
Apr 20252.50%
Mar 20252.50%
Feb 20252.40%
Jan 20252.50%
Dec 20242.50%
Nov 20242.50%
Oct 20242.50%
Sept 20242.40%
Aug 20242.50%
Jul 20242.70%
Jun 20242.50%
May 20242.60%
Apr 20242.60%
Mar 20242.60%
Feb 20242.60%
Jan 20242.50%
Dec 20232.50%
Nov 20232.60%
Oct 20232.50%
Sept 20232.60%
Aug 20232.60%
Jul 20232.60%
Jun 20232.50%
May 20232.50%
Apr 20232.60%
Mar 20232.70%
Feb 20232.60%
Jan 20232.50%
Dec 20222.50%
Nov 20222.50%
Oct 20222.60%
Sept 20222.60%
Aug 20222.50%
Jul 20222.50%
Jun 20222.60%
May 20222.60%
Apr 20222.60%
Mar 20222.60%
Feb 20222.70%
Jan 20222.80%
Dec 20212.70%
Nov 20212.80%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

New Zealand · NZD 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.6%-0.5%0.6%1.7%2.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 0.03%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 1.25%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 2.42%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 0.29%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · -0.28%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 0.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · -0.12%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 0.42%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · -0.18%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 0.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · -1.21%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 0.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 0.81%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · -0.47%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 1.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 0.34%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 1.05%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%Japan: 2022 Q1 · -0.44%Japan: 2022 Q2 · 0.95%Japan: 2022 Q3 · -0.27%Japan: 2022 Q4 · 0.50%Japan: 2023 Q1 · 0.87%Japan: 2023 Q2 · 0.07%Japan: 2023 Q3 · -1.25%Japan: 2023 Q4 · 0.48%Japan: 2024 Q1 · -0.09%Japan: 2024 Q2 · -0.12%Japan: 2024 Q3 · 0.84%Japan: 2024 Q4 · 0.40%Japan: 2025 Q1 · 0.50%Japan: 2025 Q2 · 0.12%Japan: 2025 Q3 · -0.37%Japan: 2025 Q4 · 0.26%Japan: 2026 Q1 · 0.48%Japan: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q11.05%
2025 Q40.34%
2025 Q31.22%
2025 Q2-0.47%
2025 Q10.81%
2024 Q40.20%
2024 Q3-1.21%
2024 Q20.02%
2024 Q1-0.18%
2023 Q40.42%
2023 Q3-0.12%
2023 Q20.90%
2023 Q1-0.28%
2022 Q40.29%
2022 Q32.42%
2022 Q21.25%
2022 Q10.03%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan

Source updated: 2026-09-15 3:09 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q10.48%
2025 Q40.26%
2025 Q3-0.37%
2025 Q20.12%
2025 Q10.50%
2024 Q40.40%
2024 Q30.84%
2024 Q2-0.12%
2024 Q1-0.09%
2023 Q40.48%
2023 Q3-1.25%
2023 Q20.07%
2023 Q10.87%
2022 Q40.50%
2022 Q3-0.27%
2022 Q20.95%
2022 Q1-0.44%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected NZD/JPY Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · NZD/JPY

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

NZD · RBNZScheduled

Policy announcement date

OCR decision and Monetary Policy Review

What to watch

Official Cash Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Review or Statement

Official RBNZ calendar ↗
JPY · BoJScheduled

Meeting: 29 Oct 2026–30 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

Monetary Policy Meeting and Outlook

What to watch

Policy-rate decision and Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

Official BoJ calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · NZD/JPY

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

NZD · RBNZ
Conditional further tightening projected

RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases

The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.

What could change the outlook?

New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement

Official Monetary Policy Statement ↗
JPY · BoJ
Conditional further tightening

BoJ July outlook described scope to continue raising rates

The BoJ's July outlook said it would continue adjusting accommodation by raising rates in response to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This is conditional guidance, not a dated hike promise.

What could change the outlook?

Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report

Official July Outlook Report summary ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · NZD/JPY

Only BoJ and RBNZ: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to NZD/JPY. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in NZD/JPY.

JPY · BoJ Rate decision

BoJ adjusts Complementary deposit facility interest rate · 1.25%

BoJ announced an adjustment to its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected complementary deposit facility interest rate is 1.25%. Effective 2026-09-24.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official BoJ publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Rate decision

RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate · 2.75%

RBNZ raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected official cash rate is 2.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Policy report

RBNZ publishes September Monetary Policy Statement

The RBNZ explained its decision to increase the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, alongside its assessment of inflation, economic activity and risks. Its policy projections are not identical to market-implied rates.

What this publication confirms: Official inflation and activity outlook alongside the OCR decision.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for NZD/JPY

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for NZD/JPY. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the NZD/JPY Policy-Rate Gap Means

NZD/JPY compares the NZD (New Zealand) and JPY (Japan) monetary-policy benchmarks. NZD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +150 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For NZD, monitor New Zealand CPI, labour data and RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements. For JPY, monitor Japanese wage settlements, inflation and Bank of Japan policy normalization. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares Official Cash Rate against Bank of Japan selected interest-rate benchmark. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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