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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · Fed / BoJ

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · USD

Fed · Federal Reserve

3.875%

Federal funds target range midpoint

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official Fed rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
+262.5 bp
USD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 262.5 bp

This is not a forecast of the USD/JPY exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · JPY

BoJ · Bank of Japan

1.25%

Complementary deposit facility interest rate

Effective 24 Sept 2026

Official BoJ rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

United States vs Japan

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind USD/JPY.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

United States · USD 3.74%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY -0.40%Jun 2021 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-0.9%1.8%4.5%7.2%10.0%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26United States: Nov 2021 · 6.81%United States: Dec 2021 · 7.04%United States: Jan 2022 · 7.48%United States: Feb 2022 · 7.87%United States: Mar 2022 · 8.54%United States: Apr 2022 · 8.26%United States: May 2022 · 8.58%United States: Jun 2022 · 9.06%United States: Jul 2022 · 8.52%United States: Aug 2022 · 8.26%United States: Sept 2022 · 8.20%United States: Oct 2022 · 7.75%United States: Nov 2022 · 7.11%United States: Dec 2022 · 6.45%United States: Jan 2023 · 6.41%United States: Feb 2023 · 6.04%United States: Mar 2023 · 4.98%United States: Apr 2023 · 4.93%United States: May 2023 · 4.05%United States: Jun 2023 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.18%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.67%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.24%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.14%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.35%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.09%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.15%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.48%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.36%United States: May 2024 · 3.27%United States: Jun 2024 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2024 · 2.89%United States: Aug 2024 · 2.53%United States: Sept 2024 · 2.44%United States: Oct 2024 · 2.60%United States: Nov 2024 · 2.75%United States: Dec 2024 · 2.89%United States: Jan 2025 · 3.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 2.82%United States: Mar 2025 · 2.39%United States: Apr 2025 · 2.31%United States: May 2025 · 2.35%United States: Jun 2025 · 2.67%United States: Jul 2025 · 2.70%United States: Aug 2025 · 2.92%United States: Sept 2025 · 3.01%United States: Nov 2025 · 2.74%United States: Dec 2025 · 2.68%United States: Jan 2026 · 2.39%United States: Feb 2026 · 2.41%United States: Mar 2026 · 3.26%United States: Apr 2026 · 3.81%United States: May 2026 · 4.25%United States: Jun 2026 · 3.53%United States: Jul 2026 · 3.36%United States: Aug 2026 · 3.40%United States: Sept 2026 · 3.74%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-14 8:08 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.74%
Aug 20263.40%
Jul 20263.36%
Jun 20263.53%
May 20264.25%
Apr 20263.81%
Mar 20263.26%
Feb 20262.41%
Jan 20262.39%
Dec 20252.68%
Nov 20252.74%
Sept 20253.01%
Aug 20252.92%
Jul 20252.70%
Jun 20252.67%
May 20252.35%
Apr 20252.31%
Mar 20252.39%
Feb 20252.82%
Jan 20253.00%
Dec 20242.89%
Nov 20242.75%
Oct 20242.60%
Sept 20242.44%
Aug 20242.53%
Jul 20242.89%
Jun 20242.97%
May 20243.27%
Apr 20243.36%
Mar 20243.48%
Feb 20243.15%
Jan 20243.09%
Dec 20233.35%
Nov 20233.14%
Oct 20233.24%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.67%
Jul 20233.18%
Jun 20232.97%
May 20234.05%
Apr 20234.93%
Mar 20234.98%
Feb 20236.04%
Jan 20236.41%
Dec 20226.45%
Nov 20227.11%
Oct 20227.75%
Sept 20228.20%
Aug 20228.26%
Jul 20228.52%
Jun 20229.06%
May 20228.58%
Apr 20228.26%
Mar 20228.54%
Feb 20227.87%
Jan 20227.48%
Dec 20217.04%
Nov 20216.81%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Japan · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2024-05-15 2:00 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan inflation — selected range
PeriodValue

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

United States · USD 4.20%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY 2.50%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.5%0.9%2.3%3.6%5.0%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26United States: Nov 2021 · 4.10%United States: Dec 2021 · 3.90%United States: Jan 2022 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2022 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2022 · 3.70%United States: Apr 2022 · 3.70%United States: May 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2022 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2022 · 3.60%United States: Sept 2022 · 3.50%United States: Oct 2022 · 3.60%United States: Nov 2022 · 3.60%United States: Dec 2022 · 3.50%United States: Jan 2023 · 3.50%United States: Feb 2023 · 3.60%United States: Mar 2023 · 3.50%United States: Apr 2023 · 3.40%United States: May 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.70%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.90%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.70%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.80%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.70%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.90%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.90%United States: May 2024 · 3.90%United States: Jun 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2024 · 4.20%United States: Aug 2024 · 4.20%United States: Sept 2024 · 4.10%United States: Oct 2024 · 4.10%United States: Nov 2024 · 4.20%United States: Dec 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jan 2025 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 4.20%United States: Mar 2025 · 4.20%United States: Apr 2025 · 4.20%United States: May 2025 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2025 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2025 · 4.30%United States: Aug 2025 · 4.30%United States: Sept 2025 · 4.40%United States: Nov 2025 · 4.50%United States: Dec 2025 · 4.40%United States: Jan 2026 · 4.30%United States: Feb 2026 · 4.40%United States: Mar 2026 · 4.30%United States: Apr 2026 · 4.30%United States: May 2026 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2026 · 4.20%United States: Jul 2026 · 4.10%United States: Aug 2026 · 4.10%United States: Sept 2026 · 4.20%Japan: Nov 2021 · 2.80%Japan: Dec 2021 · 2.70%Japan: Jan 2022 · 2.80%Japan: Feb 2022 · 2.70%Japan: Mar 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Apr 2022 · 2.60%Japan: May 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Jun 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Jul 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Aug 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Sept 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2022 · 2.60%Japan: Nov 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Dec 2022 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2023 · 2.70%Japan: Apr 2023 · 2.60%Japan: May 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Aug 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Sept 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Nov 2023 · 2.60%Japan: Dec 2023 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Apr 2024 · 2.60%Japan: May 2024 · 2.60%Japan: Jun 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2024 · 2.70%Japan: Aug 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Sept 2024 · 2.40%Japan: Oct 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Nov 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Dec 2024 · 2.50%Japan: Jan 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Feb 2025 · 2.40%Japan: Mar 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Apr 2025 · 2.50%Japan: May 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2025 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2025 · 2.40%Japan: Aug 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Sept 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Oct 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Nov 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Dec 2025 · 2.60%Japan: Jan 2026 · 2.70%Japan: Feb 2026 · 2.60%Japan: Mar 2026 · 2.70%Japan: Apr 2026 · 2.50%Japan: May 2026 · 2.50%Japan: Jun 2026 · 2.50%Japan: Jul 2026 · 2.40%Japan: Aug 2026 · 2.50%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Unemployment Rate

Source updated: 2026-10-02 8:24 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20264.20%
Aug 20264.10%
Jul 20264.10%
Jun 20264.20%
May 20264.30%
Apr 20264.30%
Mar 20264.30%
Feb 20264.40%
Jan 20264.30%
Dec 20254.40%
Nov 20254.50%
Sept 20254.40%
Aug 20254.30%
Jul 20254.30%
Jun 20254.10%
May 20254.30%
Apr 20254.20%
Mar 20254.20%
Feb 20254.20%
Jan 20254.00%
Dec 20244.10%
Nov 20244.20%
Oct 20244.10%
Sept 20244.10%
Aug 20244.20%
Jul 20244.20%
Jun 20244.10%
May 20243.90%
Apr 20243.90%
Mar 20243.90%
Feb 20243.90%
Jan 20243.70%
Dec 20233.80%
Nov 20233.70%
Oct 20233.90%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.70%
Jul 20233.50%
Jun 20233.60%
May 20233.60%
Apr 20233.40%
Mar 20233.50%
Feb 20233.60%
Jan 20233.50%
Dec 20223.50%
Nov 20223.60%
Oct 20223.60%
Sept 20223.50%
Aug 20223.60%
Jul 20223.50%
Jun 20223.60%
May 20223.60%
Apr 20223.70%
Mar 20223.70%
Feb 20223.90%
Jan 20224.00%
Dec 20213.90%
Nov 20214.10%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Japan

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20262.50%
Jul 20262.40%
Jun 20262.50%
May 20262.50%
Apr 20262.50%
Mar 20262.70%
Feb 20262.60%
Jan 20262.70%
Dec 20252.60%
Nov 20252.60%
Oct 20252.60%
Sept 20252.60%
Aug 20252.60%
Jul 20252.40%
Jun 20252.50%
May 20252.50%
Apr 20252.50%
Mar 20252.50%
Feb 20252.40%
Jan 20252.50%
Dec 20242.50%
Nov 20242.50%
Oct 20242.50%
Sept 20242.40%
Aug 20242.50%
Jul 20242.70%
Jun 20242.50%
May 20242.60%
Apr 20242.60%
Mar 20242.60%
Feb 20242.60%
Jan 20242.50%
Dec 20232.50%
Nov 20232.60%
Oct 20232.50%
Sept 20232.60%
Aug 20232.60%
Jul 20232.60%
Jun 20232.50%
May 20232.50%
Apr 20232.60%
Mar 20232.70%
Feb 20232.60%
Jan 20232.50%
Dec 20222.50%
Nov 20222.50%
Oct 20222.60%
Sept 20222.60%
Aug 20222.50%
Jul 20222.50%
Jun 20222.60%
May 20222.60%
Apr 20222.60%
Mar 20222.60%
Feb 20222.70%
Jan 20222.80%
Dec 20212.70%
Nov 20212.80%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

United States · USD 0.55%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
Japan · JPY 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.5%-0.8%-0.1%0.6%1.3%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26United States: 2022 Q1 · -0.25%United States: 2022 Q2 · 0.14%United States: 2022 Q3 · 0.67%United States: 2022 Q4 · 0.67%United States: 2023 Q1 · 0.83%United States: 2023 Q2 · 0.54%United States: 2023 Q3 · 1.11%United States: 2023 Q4 · 0.90%United States: 2024 Q1 · 0.36%United States: 2024 Q2 · 0.88%United States: 2024 Q3 · 0.78%United States: 2024 Q4 · 0.60%United States: 2025 Q1 · 0.04%United States: 2025 Q2 · 0.99%United States: 2025 Q3 · 0.96%United States: 2025 Q4 · 0.05%United States: 2026 Q1 · 0.62%United States: 2026 Q2 · 0.55%Japan: 2022 Q1 · -0.44%Japan: 2022 Q2 · 0.95%Japan: 2022 Q3 · -0.27%Japan: 2022 Q4 · 0.50%Japan: 2023 Q1 · 0.87%Japan: 2023 Q2 · 0.07%Japan: 2023 Q3 · -1.25%Japan: 2023 Q4 · 0.48%Japan: 2024 Q1 · -0.09%Japan: 2024 Q2 · -0.12%Japan: 2024 Q3 · 0.84%Japan: 2024 Q4 · 0.40%Japan: 2025 Q1 · 0.50%Japan: 2025 Q2 · 0.12%Japan: 2025 Q3 · -0.37%Japan: 2025 Q4 · 0.26%Japan: 2026 Q1 · 0.48%Japan: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

United States

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.55%
2026 Q10.62%
2025 Q40.05%
2025 Q30.96%
2025 Q20.99%
2025 Q10.04%
2024 Q40.60%
2024 Q30.78%
2024 Q20.88%
2024 Q10.36%
2023 Q40.90%
2023 Q31.11%
2023 Q20.54%
2023 Q10.83%
2022 Q40.67%
2022 Q30.67%
2022 Q20.14%
2022 Q1-0.25%

Japan

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Japan

Source updated: 2026-09-15 3:09 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Japan real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q10.48%
2025 Q40.26%
2025 Q3-0.37%
2025 Q20.12%
2025 Q10.50%
2024 Q40.40%
2024 Q30.84%
2024 Q2-0.12%
2024 Q1-0.09%
2023 Q40.48%
2023 Q3-1.25%
2023 Q20.07%
2023 Q10.87%
2022 Q40.50%
2022 Q3-0.27%
2022 Q20.95%
2022 Q1-0.44%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected USD/JPY Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · USD/JPY

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

USD · FedScheduled

Meeting: 27 Oct 2026–28 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

FOMC policy decision

What to watch

Interest-rate decision, FOMC statement and Chair's press conference

Official Fed calendar ↗
JPY · BoJScheduled

Meeting: 29 Oct 2026–30 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

Monetary Policy Meeting and Outlook

What to watch

Policy-rate decision and Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices

Official BoJ calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · USD/JPY

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

USD · Fed
Recent rate increase · No fixed future path

Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase

The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.

What could change the outlook?

US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections

Official FOMC statement ↗
JPY · BoJ
Conditional further tightening

BoJ July outlook described scope to continue raising rates

The BoJ's July outlook said it would continue adjusting accommodation by raising rates in response to economic activity, prices and financial conditions. This is conditional guidance, not a dated hike promise.

What could change the outlook?

Japan's wage and inflation trend, financial conditions and the October Outlook Report

Official July Outlook Report summary ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · USD/JPY

Only Fed and BoJ: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to USD/JPY. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in USD/JPY.

USD · Fed Minutes

Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. Minutes describe policymakers' discussion at the time of the meeting; they are not a new interest-rate decision or a new forward-rate quote.

What this publication confirms: Meeting discussion, not a fresh rate change.
Official Fed publication ↗
JPY · BoJ Rate decision

BoJ adjusts Complementary deposit facility interest rate · 1.25%

BoJ announced an adjustment to its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected complementary deposit facility interest rate is 1.25%. Effective 2026-09-24.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official BoJ publication ↗
USD · Fed Rate decision

Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875%

Fed raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected federal funds target range midpoint is 3.875%. Effective 2026-09-17.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official Fed publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for USD/JPY

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for USD/JPY. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the USD/JPY Policy-Rate Gap Means

USD/JPY compares the USD (United States) and JPY (Japan) monetary-policy benchmarks. USD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +262.5 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For USD, monitor US inflation, payrolls, Fed communications and Treasury-market repricing. For JPY, monitor Japanese wage settlements, inflation and Bank of Japan policy normalization. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares Federal funds target range midpoint against Bank of Japan selected interest-rate benchmark. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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