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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · ECB / Fed

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · EUR

ECB · European Central Bank

2.50%

Deposit facility rate

Effective 16 Sept 2026

Official ECB rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
-137.5 bp
USD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 137.5 bp

This is not a forecast of the EUR/USD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · USD

Fed · Federal Reserve

3.875%

Federal funds target range midpoint

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official Fed rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Euro area vs United States

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind EUR/USD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Euro area · EUR 3.75%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 3.74%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.1%2.1%5.3%8.5%11.7%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 4.88%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 4.97%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 5.11%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 5.88%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 7.44%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 7.45%Euro area: May 2022 · 8.05%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 8.64%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 8.86%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 9.15%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 9.93%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 10.62%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 10.05%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 9.20%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 8.64%Euro area: Feb 2023 · 8.50%Euro area: Mar 2023 · 6.88%Euro area: Apr 2023 · 6.94%Euro area: May 2023 · 6.10%Euro area: Jun 2023 · 5.51%Euro area: Jul 2023 · 5.28%Euro area: Aug 2023 · 5.21%Euro area: Sept 2023 · 4.32%Euro area: Oct 2023 · 2.87%Euro area: Nov 2023 · 2.37%Euro area: Dec 2023 · 2.90%Euro area: Jan 2024 · 2.76%Euro area: Feb 2024 · 2.57%Euro area: Mar 2024 · 2.41%Euro area: Apr 2024 · 2.35%Euro area: May 2024 · 2.55%Euro area: Jun 2024 · 2.50%Euro area: Jul 2024 · 2.58%Euro area: Aug 2024 · 2.16%Euro area: Sept 2024 · 1.73%Euro area: Oct 2024 · 1.99%Euro area: Nov 2024 · 2.23%Euro area: Dec 2024 · 2.43%Euro area: Jan 2025 · 2.50%Euro area: Feb 2025 · 2.30%Euro area: Mar 2025 · 2.17%Euro area: Apr 2025 · 2.16%Euro area: May 2025 · 1.86%Euro area: Jun 2025 · 1.96%Euro area: Jul 2025 · 2.01%Euro area: Aug 2025 · 2.02%Euro area: Sept 2025 · 2.22%Euro area: Oct 2025 · 2.08%Euro area: Nov 2025 · 2.11%Euro area: Dec 2025 · 1.93%Euro area: Jan 2026 · 1.64%Euro area: Feb 2026 · 1.87%Euro area: Mar 2026 · 2.53%Euro area: Apr 2026 · 3.00%Euro area: May 2026 · 3.14%Euro area: Jun 2026 · 2.73%Euro area: Jul 2026 · 2.93%Euro area: Aug 2026 · 3.23%Euro area: Sept 2026 · 3.75%United States: Nov 2021 · 6.81%United States: Dec 2021 · 7.04%United States: Jan 2022 · 7.48%United States: Feb 2022 · 7.87%United States: Mar 2022 · 8.54%United States: Apr 2022 · 8.26%United States: May 2022 · 8.58%United States: Jun 2022 · 9.06%United States: Jul 2022 · 8.52%United States: Aug 2022 · 8.26%United States: Sept 2022 · 8.20%United States: Oct 2022 · 7.75%United States: Nov 2022 · 7.11%United States: Dec 2022 · 6.45%United States: Jan 2023 · 6.41%United States: Feb 2023 · 6.04%United States: Mar 2023 · 4.98%United States: Apr 2023 · 4.93%United States: May 2023 · 4.05%United States: Jun 2023 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.18%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.67%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.24%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.14%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.35%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.09%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.15%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.48%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.36%United States: May 2024 · 3.27%United States: Jun 2024 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2024 · 2.89%United States: Aug 2024 · 2.53%United States: Sept 2024 · 2.44%United States: Oct 2024 · 2.60%United States: Nov 2024 · 2.75%United States: Dec 2024 · 2.89%United States: Jan 2025 · 3.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 2.82%United States: Mar 2025 · 2.39%United States: Apr 2025 · 2.31%United States: May 2025 · 2.35%United States: Jun 2025 · 2.67%United States: Jul 2025 · 2.70%United States: Aug 2025 · 2.92%United States: Sept 2025 · 3.01%United States: Nov 2025 · 2.74%United States: Dec 2025 · 2.68%United States: Jan 2026 · 2.39%United States: Feb 2026 · 2.41%United States: Mar 2026 · 3.26%United States: Apr 2026 · 3.81%United States: May 2026 · 4.25%United States: Jun 2026 · 3.53%United States: Jul 2026 · 3.36%United States: Aug 2026 · 3.40%United States: Sept 2026 · 3.74%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Total for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-16 7:44 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.75%
Aug 20263.23%
Jul 20262.93%
Jun 20262.73%
May 20263.14%
Apr 20263.00%
Mar 20262.53%
Feb 20261.87%
Jan 20261.64%
Dec 20251.93%
Nov 20252.11%
Oct 20252.08%
Sept 20252.22%
Aug 20252.02%
Jul 20252.01%
Jun 20251.96%
May 20251.86%
Apr 20252.16%
Mar 20252.17%
Feb 20252.30%
Jan 20252.50%
Dec 20242.43%
Nov 20242.23%
Oct 20241.99%
Sept 20241.73%
Aug 20242.16%
Jul 20242.58%
Jun 20242.50%
May 20242.55%
Apr 20242.35%
Mar 20242.41%
Feb 20242.57%
Jan 20242.76%
Dec 20232.90%
Nov 20232.37%
Oct 20232.87%
Sept 20234.32%
Aug 20235.21%
Jul 20235.28%
Jun 20235.51%
May 20236.10%
Apr 20236.94%
Mar 20236.88%
Feb 20238.50%
Jan 20238.64%
Dec 20229.20%
Nov 202210.05%
Oct 202210.62%
Sept 20229.93%
Aug 20229.15%
Jul 20228.86%
Jun 20228.64%
May 20228.05%
Apr 20227.45%
Mar 20227.44%
Feb 20225.88%
Jan 20225.11%
Dec 20214.97%
Nov 20214.88%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-14 8:08 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.74%
Aug 20263.40%
Jul 20263.36%
Jun 20263.53%
May 20264.25%
Apr 20263.81%
Mar 20263.26%
Feb 20262.41%
Jan 20262.39%
Dec 20252.68%
Nov 20252.74%
Sept 20253.01%
Aug 20252.92%
Jul 20252.70%
Jun 20252.67%
May 20252.35%
Apr 20252.31%
Mar 20252.39%
Feb 20252.82%
Jan 20253.00%
Dec 20242.89%
Nov 20242.75%
Oct 20242.60%
Sept 20242.44%
Aug 20242.53%
Jul 20242.89%
Jun 20242.97%
May 20243.27%
Apr 20243.36%
Mar 20243.48%
Feb 20243.15%
Jan 20243.09%
Dec 20233.35%
Nov 20233.14%
Oct 20233.24%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.67%
Jul 20233.18%
Jun 20232.97%
May 20234.05%
Apr 20234.93%
Mar 20234.98%
Feb 20236.04%
Jan 20236.41%
Dec 20226.45%
Nov 20227.11%
Oct 20227.75%
Sept 20228.20%
Aug 20228.26%
Jul 20228.52%
Jun 20229.06%
May 20228.58%
Apr 20228.26%
Mar 20228.54%
Feb 20227.87%
Jan 20227.48%
Dec 20217.04%
Nov 20216.81%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 6.70%Jan 2023 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 4.20%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.7%1.4%3.5%5.7%7.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 7.10%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 7.00%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 6.90%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: May 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 6.60%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 6.70%United States: Nov 2021 · 4.10%United States: Dec 2021 · 3.90%United States: Jan 2022 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2022 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2022 · 3.70%United States: Apr 2022 · 3.70%United States: May 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2022 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2022 · 3.60%United States: Sept 2022 · 3.50%United States: Oct 2022 · 3.60%United States: Nov 2022 · 3.60%United States: Dec 2022 · 3.50%United States: Jan 2023 · 3.50%United States: Feb 2023 · 3.60%United States: Mar 2023 · 3.50%United States: Apr 2023 · 3.40%United States: May 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.70%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.90%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.70%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.80%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.70%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.90%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.90%United States: May 2024 · 3.90%United States: Jun 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2024 · 4.20%United States: Aug 2024 · 4.20%United States: Sept 2024 · 4.10%United States: Oct 2024 · 4.10%United States: Nov 2024 · 4.20%United States: Dec 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jan 2025 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 4.20%United States: Mar 2025 · 4.20%United States: Apr 2025 · 4.20%United States: May 2025 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2025 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2025 · 4.30%United States: Aug 2025 · 4.30%United States: Sept 2025 · 4.40%United States: Nov 2025 · 4.50%United States: Dec 2025 · 4.40%United States: Jan 2026 · 4.30%United States: Feb 2026 · 4.40%United States: Mar 2026 · 4.30%United States: Apr 2026 · 4.30%United States: May 2026 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2026 · 4.20%United States: Jul 2026 · 4.10%United States: Aug 2026 · 4.10%United States: Sept 2026 · 4.20%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Harmonised Unemployment - Monthly Rates: Total: All Persons for the Euro Area (19 Countries)

Source updated: 2023-03-15 1:15 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Jan 20236.70%
Dec 20226.70%
Nov 20226.70%
Oct 20226.60%
Sept 20226.70%
Aug 20226.70%
Jul 20226.70%
Jun 20226.70%
May 20226.70%
Apr 20226.70%
Mar 20226.80%
Feb 20226.80%
Jan 20226.90%
Dec 20217.00%
Nov 20217.10%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Unemployment Rate

Source updated: 2026-10-02 8:24 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20264.20%
Aug 20264.10%
Jul 20264.10%
Jun 20264.20%
May 20264.30%
Apr 20264.30%
Mar 20264.30%
Feb 20264.40%
Jan 20264.30%
Dec 20254.40%
Nov 20254.50%
Sept 20254.40%
Aug 20254.30%
Jul 20254.30%
Jun 20254.10%
May 20254.30%
Apr 20254.20%
Mar 20254.20%
Feb 20254.20%
Jan 20254.00%
Dec 20244.10%
Nov 20244.20%
Oct 20244.10%
Sept 20244.10%
Aug 20244.20%
Jul 20244.20%
Jun 20244.10%
May 20243.90%
Apr 20243.90%
Mar 20243.90%
Feb 20243.90%
Jan 20243.70%
Dec 20233.80%
Nov 20233.70%
Oct 20233.90%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.70%
Jul 20233.50%
Jun 20233.60%
May 20233.60%
Apr 20233.40%
Mar 20233.50%
Feb 20233.60%
Jan 20233.50%
Dec 20223.50%
Nov 20223.60%
Oct 20223.60%
Sept 20223.50%
Aug 20223.60%
Jul 20223.50%
Jun 20223.60%
May 20223.60%
Apr 20223.70%
Mar 20223.70%
Feb 20223.90%
Jan 20224.00%
Dec 20213.90%
Nov 20214.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 0.63%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 0.55%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.4%0.0%0.4%0.8%1.2%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: 2022 Q1 · 0.75%Euro area: 2022 Q2 · 0.94%Euro area: 2022 Q3 · 0.54%Euro area: 2022 Q4 · -0.05%Euro area: 2023 Q1 · -0.21%Euro area: 2023 Q2 · 0.19%Euro area: 2023 Q3 · 0.18%Euro area: 2023 Q4 · -0.00%Euro area: 2024 Q1 · 0.43%Euro area: 2024 Q2 · 0.22%Euro area: 2024 Q3 · 0.53%Euro area: 2024 Q4 · 0.32%Euro area: 2025 Q1 · 0.49%Euro area: 2025 Q2 · 0.02%Euro area: 2025 Q3 · 0.31%Euro area: 2025 Q4 · 0.22%Euro area: 2026 Q1 · -0.01%Euro area: 2026 Q2 · 0.63%United States: 2022 Q1 · -0.25%United States: 2022 Q2 · 0.14%United States: 2022 Q3 · 0.67%United States: 2022 Q4 · 0.67%United States: 2023 Q1 · 0.83%United States: 2023 Q2 · 0.54%United States: 2023 Q3 · 1.11%United States: 2023 Q4 · 0.90%United States: 2024 Q1 · 0.36%United States: 2024 Q2 · 0.88%United States: 2024 Q3 · 0.78%United States: 2024 Q4 · 0.60%United States: 2025 Q1 · 0.04%United States: 2025 Q2 · 0.99%United States: 2025 Q3 · 0.96%United States: 2025 Q4 · 0.05%United States: 2026 Q1 · 0.62%United States: 2026 Q2 · 0.55%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates quarter-on-quarter percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-09-07 4:03 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.63%
2026 Q1-0.01%
2025 Q40.22%
2025 Q30.31%
2025 Q20.02%
2025 Q10.49%
2024 Q40.32%
2024 Q30.53%
2024 Q20.22%
2024 Q10.43%
2023 Q4-0.00%
2023 Q30.18%
2023 Q20.19%
2023 Q1-0.21%
2022 Q4-0.05%
2022 Q30.54%
2022 Q20.94%
2022 Q10.75%

United States

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.55%
2026 Q10.62%
2025 Q40.05%
2025 Q30.96%
2025 Q20.99%
2025 Q10.04%
2024 Q40.60%
2024 Q30.78%
2024 Q20.88%
2024 Q10.36%
2023 Q40.90%
2023 Q31.11%
2023 Q20.54%
2023 Q10.83%
2022 Q40.67%
2022 Q30.67%
2022 Q20.14%
2022 Q1-0.25%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected EUR/USD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · EUR/USD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

USD · FedScheduled

Meeting: 27 Oct 2026–28 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

FOMC policy decision

What to watch

Interest-rate decision, FOMC statement and Chair's press conference

Official Fed calendar ↗
EUR · ECBScheduled

Policy announcement date

Governing Council monetary policy decision

What to watch

Deposit facility rate decision and monetary policy press conference

Official ECB calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · EUR/USD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

EUR · ECB
Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting

ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path

The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.

What could change the outlook?

Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections

Official monetary policy decisions ↗
USD · Fed
Recent rate increase · No fixed future path

Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase

The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.

What could change the outlook?

US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections

Official FOMC statement ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · EUR/USD

Only Fed and ECB: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to EUR/USD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

4 publications from the two banks in EUR/USD.

USD · Fed Minutes

Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. Minutes describe policymakers' discussion at the time of the meeting; they are not a new interest-rate decision or a new forward-rate quote.

What this publication confirms: Meeting discussion, not a fresh rate change.
Official Fed publication ↗
USD · Fed Rate decision

Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875%

Fed raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected federal funds target range midpoint is 3.875%. Effective 2026-09-17.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official Fed publication ↗
EUR · ECB Policy statement

ECB explains September monetary policy decision

The ECB's September monetary policy statement and Q&A explain the Governing Council's interest-rate decision and inflation outlook. This policy communication is separate from derivatives-market expectations.

What this publication confirms: Official reasoning behind the announced September policy decision.
Official ECB publication ↗
EUR · ECB Rate decision

ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50%

ECB raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected deposit facility rate is 2.50%. Effective 2026-09-16.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official ECB publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for EUR/USD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for EUR/USD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the EUR/USD Policy-Rate Gap Means

EUR/USD compares the EUR (euro area) and USD (United States) monetary-policy benchmarks. USD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is -137.5 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For EUR, monitor euro-area inflation, growth indicators and ECB Governing Council communications. For USD, monitor US inflation, payrolls, Fed communications and Treasury-market repricing. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares ECB deposit facility rate against Federal funds target range midpoint. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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