MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · ECB / BoE

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for European Central Bank and Bank of England. Updated from the verified snapshot dated 15 Oct 2026.

Explore all pairs →

BASE · EUR

ECB · European Central Bank

2.50%

Deposit facility rate

Effective 16 Sept 2026

Official ECB rate source ↗

SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP

-125 bp

GBP has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 125 bp

This is not a forecast of the EUR/GBP exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · GBP

BoE · Bank of England

3.75%

Bank Rate

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official BoE rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Euro area vs United Kingdom

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind EUR/GBP.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Euro area · EUR 3.75%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history

United Kingdom · GBP 3.42%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Total for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-16 7:44 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Sept 2026	3.75%
Aug 2026	3.23%
Jul 2026	2.93%
Jun 2026	2.73%
May 2026	3.14%
Apr 2026	3.00%
Mar 2026	2.53%
Feb 2026	1.87%
Jan 2026	1.64%
Dec 2025	1.93%
Nov 2025	2.11%
Oct 2025	2.08%
Sept 2025	2.22%
Aug 2025	2.02%
Jul 2025	2.01%
Jun 2025	1.96%
May 2025	1.86%
Apr 2025	2.16%
Mar 2025	2.17%
Feb 2025	2.30%
Jan 2025	2.50%
Dec 2024	2.43%
Nov 2024	2.23%
Oct 2024	1.99%
Sept 2024	1.73%
Aug 2024	2.16%
Jul 2024	2.58%
Jun 2024	2.50%
May 2024	2.55%
Apr 2024	2.35%
Mar 2024	2.41%
Feb 2024	2.57%
Jan 2024	2.76%
Dec 2023	2.90%
Nov 2023	2.37%
Oct 2023	2.87%
Sept 2023	4.32%
Aug 2023	5.21%
Jul 2023	5.28%
Jun 2023	5.51%
May 2023	6.10%
Apr 2023	6.94%
Mar 2023	6.88%
Feb 2023	8.50%
Jan 2023	8.64%
Dec 2022	9.20%
Nov 2022	10.05%
Oct 2022	10.62%
Sept 2022	9.93%
Aug 2022	9.15%
Jul 2022	8.86%
Jun 2022	8.64%
May 2022	8.05%
Apr 2022	7.45%
Mar 2022	7.44%
Feb 2022	5.88%
Jan 2022	5.11%
Dec 2021	4.97%
Nov 2021	4.88%

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:18 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Mar 2025	3.42%
Feb 2025	3.67%
Jan 2025	3.92%
Dec 2024	3.52%
Nov 2024	3.54%
Oct 2024	3.15%
Sept 2024	2.61%
Aug 2024	3.09%
Jul 2024	3.02%
Jun 2024	2.78%
May 2024	2.79%
Apr 2024	3.04%
Mar 2024	3.79%
Feb 2024	3.81%
Jan 2024	4.17%
Dec 2023	4.15%
Nov 2023	4.17%
Oct 2023	4.75%
Sept 2023	6.38%
Aug 2023	6.24%
Jul 2023	6.44%
Jun 2023	7.39%
May 2023	7.85%
Apr 2023	7.82%
Mar 2023	8.84%
Feb 2023	9.19%
Jan 2023	8.90%
Dec 2022	9.24%
Nov 2022	9.38%
Oct 2022	9.61%
Sept 2022	8.81%
Aug 2022	8.65%
Jul 2022	8.80%
Jun 2022	8.17%
May 2022	7.84%
Apr 2022	7.79%
Mar 2022	6.20%
Feb 2022	5.48%
Jan 2022	4.85%
Dec 2021	4.84%
Nov 2021	4.58%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 6.70%Jan 2023 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

United Kingdom · GBP 4.90%Jun 2026 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Harmonised Unemployment - Monthly Rates: Total: All Persons for the Euro Area (19 Countries)

Source updated: 2023-03-15 1:15 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Jan 2023	6.70%
Dec 2022	6.70%
Nov 2022	6.70%
Oct 2022	6.60%
Sept 2022	6.70%
Aug 2022	6.70%
Jul 2022	6.70%
Jun 2022	6.70%
May 2022	6.70%
Apr 2022	6.70%
Mar 2022	6.80%
Feb 2022	6.80%
Jan 2022	6.90%
Dec 2021	7.00%
Nov 2021	7.10%

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Jun 2026	4.90%
May 2026	4.90%
Apr 2026	4.90%
Mar 2026	4.90%
Feb 2026	5.00%
Jan 2026	4.90%
Dec 2025	5.20%
Nov 2025	5.20%
Oct 2025	5.10%
Sept 2025	5.10%
Aug 2025	5.00%
Jul 2025	4.80%
Jun 2025	4.70%
May 2025	4.70%
Apr 2025	4.70%
Mar 2025	4.60%
Feb 2025	4.60%
Jan 2025	4.50%
Dec 2024	4.40%
Nov 2024	4.40%
Oct 2024	4.40%
Sept 2024	4.20%
Aug 2024	4.30%
Jul 2024	4.10%
Jun 2024	4.20%
May 2024	4.20%
Apr 2024	4.40%
Mar 2024	4.40%
Feb 2024	4.30%
Jan 2024	4.20%
Dec 2023	4.10%
Nov 2023	3.90%
Oct 2023	4.00%
Sept 2023	4.00%
Aug 2023	4.10%
Jul 2023	4.30%
Jun 2023	4.40%
May 2023	4.20%
Apr 2023	4.00%
Mar 2023	3.90%
Feb 2023	4.00%
Jan 2023	4.00%
Dec 2022	3.90%
Nov 2022	3.90%
Oct 2022	3.90%
Sept 2022	3.80%
Aug 2022	3.70%
Jul 2022	3.60%
Jun 2022	3.60%
May 2022	3.80%
Apr 2022	3.70%
Mar 2022	3.80%
Feb 2022	3.80%
Jan 2022	3.90%
Dec 2021	4.10%
Nov 2021	4.20%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 0.63%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

United Kingdom · GBP 0.53%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates quarter-on-quarter percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-09-07 4:03 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.63%
2026 Q1	-0.01%
2025 Q4	0.22%
2025 Q3	0.31%
2025 Q2	0.02%
2025 Q1	0.49%
2024 Q4	0.32%
2024 Q3	0.53%
2024 Q2	0.22%
2024 Q1	0.43%
2023 Q4	-0.00%
2023 Q3	0.18%
2023 Q2	0.19%
2023 Q1	-0.21%
2022 Q4	-0.05%
2022 Q3	0.54%
2022 Q2	0.94%
2022 Q1	0.75%

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.53%
2026 Q1	0.64%
2025 Q4	0.01%
2025 Q3	0.18%
2025 Q2	0.01%
2025 Q1	0.60%
2024 Q4	0.36%
2024 Q3	0.17%
2024 Q2	0.62%
2024 Q1	0.73%
2023 Q4	-0.26%
2023 Q3	-0.16%
2023 Q2	0.04%
2023 Q1	0.15%
2022 Q4	0.29%
2022 Q3	0.10%
2022 Q2	0.56%
2022 Q1	0.86%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected EUR/GBP Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…

Policy calendar · EUR/GBP

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

EUR · ECBScheduled

29 Oct 2026

Policy announcement date

Governing Council monetary policy decision

What to watch

Deposit facility rate decision and monetary policy press conference

Official ECB calendar ↗

GBP · BoEScheduled

5 Nov 2026

Policy announcement date

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Bank Rate decision, MPC vote and Monetary Policy Report

Official BoE calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · EUR/GBP

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

EUR · ECB10 Sept 2026

Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting

ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path

The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.

What could change the outlook?

Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections

Official monetary policy decisions ↗

GBP · BoE17 Sept 2026

Rate hold · Upside inflation risks

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.

What could change the outlook?

UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes

MPC summary and minutes ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · EUR/GBP

Only BoE and ECB: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to EUR/GBP. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in EUR/GBP.

GBP · BoE Rate decision 17 Sept 2026

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

BoE kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected bank rate is 3.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official BoE publication ↗

EUR · ECB Policy statement 10 Sept 2026

ECB explains September monetary policy decision

The ECB's September monetary policy statement and Q&A explain the Governing Council's interest-rate decision and inflation outlook. This policy communication is separate from derivatives-market expectations.

What this publication confirms: Official reasoning behind the announced September policy decision.

Official ECB publication ↗

EUR · ECB Rate decision 10 Sept 2026

ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50%

ECB raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected deposit facility rate is 2.50%. Effective 2026-09-16.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official ECB publication ↗

AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for EUR/GBP

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for EUR/GBP. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…

Interpretation & sources

What the EUR/GBP Policy-Rate Gap Means

EUR/GBP compares the EUR (euro area) and GBP (United Kingdom) monetary-policy benchmarks. GBP has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is -125 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For EUR, monitor euro-area inflation, growth indicators and ECB Governing Council communications. For GBP, monitor UK inflation, wage growth and Monetary Policy Committee votes. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares ECB deposit facility rate against Bank Rate. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

17 Sept 2026 · BoE: BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75% ↗
10 Sept 2026 · ECB: ECB explains September monetary policy decision ↗
10 Sept 2026 · ECB: ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50% ↗

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

ECB · European Central Bank

BoE · Bank of England

Euro area vs United Kingdom

Inflation

Euro area

United Kingdom

Unemployment

Euro area

United Kingdom

Real GDP growth

Euro area

United Kingdom

Expected EUR/GBP Rate Divergence

Governing Council monetary policy decision

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

Central Bank Policy Updates · EUR/GBP

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

ECB explains September monetary policy decision

ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50%

Recent publication links for EUR/GBP

What the EUR/GBP Policy-Rate Gap Means

What could change the relative policy outlook?

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Explore related currency pairs