MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · BoE / BoC

GBP/CAD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Bank of England and Bank of Canada. Updated from the verified snapshot dated 15 Oct 2026.

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BASE · GBP

BoE · Bank of England

3.75%

Bank Rate

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official BoE rate source ↗

SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP

+150 bp

GBP has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 150 bp

This is not a forecast of the GBP/CAD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · CAD

BoC · Bank of Canada

2.25%

Target for overnight rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official BoC rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

United Kingdom vs Canada

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind GBP/CAD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

United Kingdom · GBP 3.42%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

Canada · CAD 2.32%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:18 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Mar 2025	3.42%
Feb 2025	3.67%
Jan 2025	3.92%
Dec 2024	3.52%
Nov 2024	3.54%
Oct 2024	3.15%
Sept 2024	2.61%
Aug 2024	3.09%
Jul 2024	3.02%
Jun 2024	2.78%
May 2024	2.79%
Apr 2024	3.04%
Mar 2024	3.79%
Feb 2024	3.81%
Jan 2024	4.17%
Dec 2023	4.15%
Nov 2023	4.17%
Oct 2023	4.75%
Sept 2023	6.38%
Aug 2023	6.24%
Jul 2023	6.44%
Jun 2023	7.39%
May 2023	7.85%
Apr 2023	7.82%
Mar 2023	8.84%
Feb 2023	9.19%
Jan 2023	8.90%
Dec 2022	9.24%
Nov 2022	9.38%
Oct 2022	9.61%
Sept 2022	8.81%
Aug 2022	8.65%
Jul 2022	8.80%
Jun 2022	8.17%
May 2022	7.84%
Apr 2022	7.79%
Mar 2022	6.20%
Feb 2022	5.48%
Jan 2022	4.85%
Dec 2021	4.84%
Nov 2021	4.58%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Canada · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:20 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Mar 2025	2.32%
Feb 2025	2.64%
Jan 2025	1.90%
Dec 2024	1.83%
Nov 2024	1.89%
Oct 2024	2.02%
Sept 2024	1.64%
Aug 2024	1.95%
Jul 2024	2.53%
Jun 2024	2.67%
May 2024	2.87%
Apr 2024	2.69%
Mar 2024	2.90%
Feb 2024	2.78%
Jan 2024	2.86%
Dec 2023	3.40%
Nov 2023	3.12%
Oct 2023	3.12%
Sept 2023	3.80%
Aug 2023	4.00%
Jul 2023	3.27%
Jun 2023	2.81%
May 2023	3.36%
Apr 2023	4.41%
Mar 2023	4.30%
Feb 2023	5.25%
Jan 2023	5.92%
Dec 2022	6.32%
Nov 2022	6.80%
Oct 2022	6.88%
Sept 2022	6.86%
Aug 2022	7.01%
Jul 2022	7.59%
Jun 2022	8.13%
May 2022	7.73%
Apr 2022	6.77%
Mar 2022	6.66%
Feb 2022	5.69%
Jan 2022	5.14%
Dec 2021	4.80%
Nov 2021	4.72%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

United Kingdom · GBP 4.90%Jun 2026 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

Canada · CAD 6.40%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Jun 2026	4.90%
May 2026	4.90%
Apr 2026	4.90%
Mar 2026	4.90%
Feb 2026	5.00%
Jan 2026	4.90%
Dec 2025	5.20%
Nov 2025	5.20%
Oct 2025	5.10%
Sept 2025	5.10%
Aug 2025	5.00%
Jul 2025	4.80%
Jun 2025	4.70%
May 2025	4.70%
Apr 2025	4.70%
Mar 2025	4.60%
Feb 2025	4.60%
Jan 2025	4.50%
Dec 2024	4.40%
Nov 2024	4.40%
Oct 2024	4.40%
Sept 2024	4.20%
Aug 2024	4.30%
Jul 2024	4.10%
Jun 2024	4.20%
May 2024	4.20%
Apr 2024	4.40%
Mar 2024	4.40%
Feb 2024	4.30%
Jan 2024	4.20%
Dec 2023	4.10%
Nov 2023	3.90%
Oct 2023	4.00%
Sept 2023	4.00%
Aug 2023	4.10%
Jul 2023	4.30%
Jun 2023	4.40%
May 2023	4.20%
Apr 2023	4.00%
Mar 2023	3.90%
Feb 2023	4.00%
Jan 2023	4.00%
Dec 2022	3.90%
Nov 2022	3.90%
Oct 2022	3.90%
Sept 2022	3.80%
Aug 2022	3.70%
Jul 2022	3.60%
Jun 2022	3.60%
May 2022	3.80%
Apr 2022	3.70%
Mar 2022	3.80%
Feb 2022	3.80%
Jan 2022	3.90%
Dec 2021	4.10%
Nov 2021	4.20%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada

Source updated: 2026-09-15 3:14 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Aug 2026	6.40%
Jul 2026	6.40%
Jun 2026	6.50%
May 2026	6.60%
Apr 2026	6.90%
Mar 2026	6.70%
Feb 2026	6.70%
Jan 2026	6.50%
Dec 2025	6.80%
Nov 2025	6.60%
Oct 2025	6.90%
Sept 2025	7.10%
Aug 2025	7.10%
Jul 2025	6.90%
Jun 2025	6.90%
May 2025	7.00%
Apr 2025	6.90%
Mar 2025	6.80%
Feb 2025	6.60%
Jan 2025	6.70%
Dec 2024	6.70%
Nov 2024	7.00%
Oct 2024	6.60%
Sept 2024	6.50%
Aug 2024	6.60%
Jul 2024	6.40%
Jun 2024	6.40%
May 2024	6.30%
Apr 2024	6.20%
Mar 2024	6.10%
Feb 2024	5.90%
Jan 2024	5.70%
Dec 2023	5.80%
Nov 2023	5.80%
Oct 2023	5.70%
Sept 2023	5.50%
Aug 2023	5.40%
Jul 2023	5.40%
Jun 2023	5.40%
May 2023	5.20%
Apr 2023	5.10%
Mar 2023	5.10%
Feb 2023	5.20%
Jan 2023	5.10%
Dec 2022	5.00%
Nov 2022	5.00%
Oct 2022	5.10%
Sept 2022	5.10%
Aug 2022	5.20%
Jul 2022	4.80%
Jun 2022	4.90%
May 2022	5.20%
Apr 2022	5.40%
Mar 2022	5.40%
Feb 2022	5.50%
Jan 2022	6.40%
Dec 2021	5.90%
Nov 2021	6.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

United Kingdom · GBP 0.53%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

Canada · CAD 0.82%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.53%
2026 Q1	0.64%
2025 Q4	0.01%
2025 Q3	0.18%
2025 Q2	0.01%
2025 Q1	0.60%
2024 Q4	0.36%
2024 Q3	0.17%
2024 Q2	0.62%
2024 Q1	0.73%
2023 Q4	-0.26%
2023 Q3	-0.16%
2023 Q2	0.04%
2023 Q1	0.15%
2022 Q4	0.29%
2022 Q3	0.10%
2022 Q2	0.56%
2022 Q1	0.86%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.82%
2026 Q1	0.08%
2025 Q4	-0.25%
2025 Q3	0.47%
2025 Q2	-0.24%
2025 Q1	0.72%
2024 Q4	0.70%
2024 Q3	0.82%
2024 Q2	0.82%
2024 Q1	0.73%
2023 Q4	0.05%
2023 Q3	0.05%
2023 Q2	0.16%
2023 Q1	1.05%
2022 Q4	0.06%
2022 Q3	0.81%
2022 Q2	1.14%
2022 Q1	1.04%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected GBP/CAD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…

Policy calendar · GBP/CAD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

CAD · BoCScheduled

28 Oct 2026

Policy announcement date

Rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Overnight-rate target decision and Monetary Policy Report when scheduled

Official BoC calendar ↗

GBP · BoEScheduled

5 Nov 2026

Policy announcement date

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Bank Rate decision, MPC vote and Monetary Policy Report

Official BoE calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · GBP/CAD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

GBP · BoE17 Sept 2026

Rate hold · Upside inflation risks

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.

What could change the outlook?

UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes

MPC summary and minutes ↗

CAD · BoC2 Sept 2026

Rate hold · Watching inflation upside

BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation

The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.

What could change the outlook?

Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects

Official rate decision press release ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · GBP/CAD

Only BoE and BoC: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to GBP/CAD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in GBP/CAD.

GBP · BoE Rate decision 17 Sept 2026

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

BoE kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected bank rate is 3.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official BoE publication ↗

CAD · BoC Minutes 16 Sept 2026

BoC releases September policy deliberations

The Bank of Canada's Governing Council discussed inflation risks, high energy costs, trade uncertainty and economic activity before keeping the overnight target at 2.25%. The record reports deliberations, not a new rate change.

What this publication confirms: The council weighed elevated inflation risks against economic uncertainty.

Official BoC publication ↗

CAD · BoC Rate decision 2 Sept 2026

BoC holds Target for overnight rate · 2.25%

BoC kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected target for overnight rate is 2.25%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official BoC publication ↗

AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for GBP/CAD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for GBP/CAD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…

Interpretation & sources

What the GBP/CAD Policy-Rate Gap Means

GBP/CAD compares the GBP (United Kingdom) and CAD (Canada) monetary-policy benchmarks. GBP has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +150 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For GBP, monitor UK inflation, wage growth and Monetary Policy Committee votes. For CAD, monitor Canadian inflation, employment and Bank of Canada deliberations. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares Bank Rate against overnight-rate target. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

17 Sept 2026 · BoE: BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75% ↗
16 Sept 2026 · BoC: BoC releases September policy deliberations ↗
2 Sept 2026 · BoC: BoC holds Target for overnight rate · 2.25% ↗

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

BoE · Bank of England

BoC · Bank of Canada

United Kingdom vs Canada

Inflation

United Kingdom

Canada

Unemployment

United Kingdom

Canada

Real GDP growth

United Kingdom

Canada

Expected GBP/CAD Rate Divergence

Rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation

Central Bank Policy Updates · GBP/CAD

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

BoC releases September policy deliberations

BoC holds Target for overnight rate · 2.25%

Recent publication links for GBP/CAD

What the GBP/CAD Policy-Rate Gap Means

What could change the relative policy outlook?

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

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