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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · ECB / BoC

EUR/CAD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for European Central Bank and Bank of Canada. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · EUR

ECB · European Central Bank

2.50%

Deposit facility rate

Effective 16 Sept 2026

Official ECB rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
+25 bp
EUR has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 25 bp

This is not a forecast of the EUR/CAD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · CAD

BoC · Bank of Canada

2.25%

Target for overnight rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official BoC rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Euro area vs Canada

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind EUR/CAD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Euro area · EUR 3.75%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 2.32%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-1.1%2.1%5.3%8.5%11.7%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 4.88%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 4.97%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 5.11%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 5.88%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 7.44%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 7.45%Euro area: May 2022 · 8.05%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 8.64%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 8.86%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 9.15%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 9.93%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 10.62%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 10.05%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 9.20%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 8.64%Euro area: Feb 2023 · 8.50%Euro area: Mar 2023 · 6.88%Euro area: Apr 2023 · 6.94%Euro area: May 2023 · 6.10%Euro area: Jun 2023 · 5.51%Euro area: Jul 2023 · 5.28%Euro area: Aug 2023 · 5.21%Euro area: Sept 2023 · 4.32%Euro area: Oct 2023 · 2.87%Euro area: Nov 2023 · 2.37%Euro area: Dec 2023 · 2.90%Euro area: Jan 2024 · 2.76%Euro area: Feb 2024 · 2.57%Euro area: Mar 2024 · 2.41%Euro area: Apr 2024 · 2.35%Euro area: May 2024 · 2.55%Euro area: Jun 2024 · 2.50%Euro area: Jul 2024 · 2.58%Euro area: Aug 2024 · 2.16%Euro area: Sept 2024 · 1.73%Euro area: Oct 2024 · 1.99%Euro area: Nov 2024 · 2.23%Euro area: Dec 2024 · 2.43%Euro area: Jan 2025 · 2.50%Euro area: Feb 2025 · 2.30%Euro area: Mar 2025 · 2.17%Euro area: Apr 2025 · 2.16%Euro area: May 2025 · 1.86%Euro area: Jun 2025 · 1.96%Euro area: Jul 2025 · 2.01%Euro area: Aug 2025 · 2.02%Euro area: Sept 2025 · 2.22%Euro area: Oct 2025 · 2.08%Euro area: Nov 2025 · 2.11%Euro area: Dec 2025 · 1.93%Euro area: Jan 2026 · 1.64%Euro area: Feb 2026 · 1.87%Euro area: Mar 2026 · 2.53%Euro area: Apr 2026 · 3.00%Euro area: May 2026 · 3.14%Euro area: Jun 2026 · 2.73%Euro area: Jul 2026 · 2.93%Euro area: Aug 2026 · 3.23%Euro area: Sept 2026 · 3.75%Canada: Nov 2021 · 4.72%Canada: Dec 2021 · 4.80%Canada: Jan 2022 · 5.14%Canada: Feb 2022 · 5.69%Canada: Mar 2022 · 6.66%Canada: Apr 2022 · 6.77%Canada: May 2022 · 7.73%Canada: Jun 2022 · 8.13%Canada: Jul 2022 · 7.59%Canada: Aug 2022 · 7.01%Canada: Sept 2022 · 6.86%Canada: Oct 2022 · 6.88%Canada: Nov 2022 · 6.80%Canada: Dec 2022 · 6.32%Canada: Jan 2023 · 5.92%Canada: Feb 2023 · 5.25%Canada: Mar 2023 · 4.30%Canada: Apr 2023 · 4.41%Canada: May 2023 · 3.36%Canada: Jun 2023 · 2.81%Canada: Jul 2023 · 3.27%Canada: Aug 2023 · 4.00%Canada: Sept 2023 · 3.80%Canada: Oct 2023 · 3.12%Canada: Nov 2023 · 3.12%Canada: Dec 2023 · 3.40%Canada: Jan 2024 · 2.86%Canada: Feb 2024 · 2.78%Canada: Mar 2024 · 2.90%Canada: Apr 2024 · 2.69%Canada: May 2024 · 2.87%Canada: Jun 2024 · 2.67%Canada: Jul 2024 · 2.53%Canada: Aug 2024 · 1.95%Canada: Sept 2024 · 1.64%Canada: Oct 2024 · 2.02%Canada: Nov 2024 · 1.89%Canada: Dec 2024 · 1.83%Canada: Jan 2025 · 1.90%Canada: Feb 2025 · 2.64%Canada: Mar 2025 · 2.32%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Total for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-16 7:44 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.75%
Aug 20263.23%
Jul 20262.93%
Jun 20262.73%
May 20263.14%
Apr 20263.00%
Mar 20262.53%
Feb 20261.87%
Jan 20261.64%
Dec 20251.93%
Nov 20252.11%
Oct 20252.08%
Sept 20252.22%
Aug 20252.02%
Jul 20252.01%
Jun 20251.96%
May 20251.86%
Apr 20252.16%
Mar 20252.17%
Feb 20252.30%
Jan 20252.50%
Dec 20242.43%
Nov 20242.23%
Oct 20241.99%
Sept 20241.73%
Aug 20242.16%
Jul 20242.58%
Jun 20242.50%
May 20242.55%
Apr 20242.35%
Mar 20242.41%
Feb 20242.57%
Jan 20242.76%
Dec 20232.90%
Nov 20232.37%
Oct 20232.87%
Sept 20234.32%
Aug 20235.21%
Jul 20235.28%
Jun 20235.51%
May 20236.10%
Apr 20236.94%
Mar 20236.88%
Feb 20238.50%
Jan 20238.64%
Dec 20229.20%
Nov 202210.05%
Oct 202210.62%
Sept 20229.93%
Aug 20229.15%
Jul 20228.86%
Jun 20228.64%
May 20228.05%
Apr 20227.45%
Mar 20227.44%
Feb 20225.88%
Jan 20225.11%
Dec 20214.97%
Nov 20214.88%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for Canada · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:20 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Mar 20252.32%
Feb 20252.64%
Jan 20251.90%
Dec 20241.83%
Nov 20241.89%
Oct 20242.02%
Sept 20241.64%
Aug 20241.95%
Jul 20242.53%
Jun 20242.67%
May 20242.87%
Apr 20242.69%
Mar 20242.90%
Feb 20242.78%
Jan 20242.86%
Dec 20233.40%
Nov 20233.12%
Oct 20233.12%
Sept 20233.80%
Aug 20234.00%
Jul 20233.27%
Jun 20232.81%
May 20233.36%
Apr 20234.41%
Mar 20234.30%
Feb 20235.25%
Jan 20235.92%
Dec 20226.32%
Nov 20226.80%
Oct 20226.88%
Sept 20226.86%
Aug 20227.01%
Jul 20227.59%
Jun 20228.13%
May 20227.73%
Apr 20226.77%
Mar 20226.66%
Feb 20225.69%
Jan 20225.14%
Dec 20214.80%
Nov 20214.72%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 6.70%Jan 2023 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 6.40%Aug 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.7%1.4%3.5%5.7%7.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 7.10%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 7.00%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 6.90%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: May 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 6.60%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 6.70%Canada: Nov 2021 · 6.10%Canada: Dec 2021 · 5.90%Canada: Jan 2022 · 6.40%Canada: Feb 2022 · 5.50%Canada: Mar 2022 · 5.40%Canada: Apr 2022 · 5.40%Canada: May 2022 · 5.20%Canada: Jun 2022 · 4.90%Canada: Jul 2022 · 4.80%Canada: Aug 2022 · 5.20%Canada: Sept 2022 · 5.10%Canada: Oct 2022 · 5.10%Canada: Nov 2022 · 5.00%Canada: Dec 2022 · 5.00%Canada: Jan 2023 · 5.10%Canada: Feb 2023 · 5.20%Canada: Mar 2023 · 5.10%Canada: Apr 2023 · 5.10%Canada: May 2023 · 5.20%Canada: Jun 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Jul 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Aug 2023 · 5.40%Canada: Sept 2023 · 5.50%Canada: Oct 2023 · 5.70%Canada: Nov 2023 · 5.80%Canada: Dec 2023 · 5.80%Canada: Jan 2024 · 5.70%Canada: Feb 2024 · 5.90%Canada: Mar 2024 · 6.10%Canada: Apr 2024 · 6.20%Canada: May 2024 · 6.30%Canada: Jun 2024 · 6.40%Canada: Jul 2024 · 6.40%Canada: Aug 2024 · 6.60%Canada: Sept 2024 · 6.50%Canada: Oct 2024 · 6.60%Canada: Nov 2024 · 7.00%Canada: Dec 2024 · 6.70%Canada: Jan 2025 · 6.70%Canada: Feb 2025 · 6.60%Canada: Mar 2025 · 6.80%Canada: Apr 2025 · 6.90%Canada: May 2025 · 7.00%Canada: Jun 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Jul 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Aug 2025 · 7.10%Canada: Sept 2025 · 7.10%Canada: Oct 2025 · 6.90%Canada: Nov 2025 · 6.60%Canada: Dec 2025 · 6.80%Canada: Jan 2026 · 6.50%Canada: Feb 2026 · 6.70%Canada: Mar 2026 · 6.70%Canada: Apr 2026 · 6.90%Canada: May 2026 · 6.60%Canada: Jun 2026 · 6.50%Canada: Jul 2026 · 6.40%Canada: Aug 2026 · 6.40%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Harmonised Unemployment - Monthly Rates: Total: All Persons for the Euro Area (19 Countries)

Source updated: 2023-03-15 1:15 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Jan 20236.70%
Dec 20226.70%
Nov 20226.70%
Oct 20226.60%
Sept 20226.70%
Aug 20226.70%
Jul 20226.70%
Jun 20226.70%
May 20226.70%
Apr 20226.70%
Mar 20226.80%
Feb 20226.80%
Jan 20226.90%
Dec 20217.00%
Nov 20217.10%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada

Source updated: 2026-09-15 3:14 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Aug 20266.40%
Jul 20266.40%
Jun 20266.50%
May 20266.60%
Apr 20266.90%
Mar 20266.70%
Feb 20266.70%
Jan 20266.50%
Dec 20256.80%
Nov 20256.60%
Oct 20256.90%
Sept 20257.10%
Aug 20257.10%
Jul 20256.90%
Jun 20256.90%
May 20257.00%
Apr 20256.90%
Mar 20256.80%
Feb 20256.60%
Jan 20256.70%
Dec 20246.70%
Nov 20247.00%
Oct 20246.60%
Sept 20246.50%
Aug 20246.60%
Jul 20246.40%
Jun 20246.40%
May 20246.30%
Apr 20246.20%
Mar 20246.10%
Feb 20245.90%
Jan 20245.70%
Dec 20235.80%
Nov 20235.80%
Oct 20235.70%
Sept 20235.50%
Aug 20235.40%
Jul 20235.40%
Jun 20235.40%
May 20235.20%
Apr 20235.10%
Mar 20235.10%
Feb 20235.20%
Jan 20235.10%
Dec 20225.00%
Nov 20225.00%
Oct 20225.10%
Sept 20225.10%
Aug 20225.20%
Jul 20224.80%
Jun 20224.90%
May 20225.20%
Apr 20225.40%
Mar 20225.40%
Feb 20225.50%
Jan 20226.40%
Dec 20215.90%
Nov 20216.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 0.63%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
Canada · CAD 0.82%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.4%0.0%0.4%0.9%1.3%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: 2022 Q1 · 0.75%Euro area: 2022 Q2 · 0.94%Euro area: 2022 Q3 · 0.54%Euro area: 2022 Q4 · -0.05%Euro area: 2023 Q1 · -0.21%Euro area: 2023 Q2 · 0.19%Euro area: 2023 Q3 · 0.18%Euro area: 2023 Q4 · -0.00%Euro area: 2024 Q1 · 0.43%Euro area: 2024 Q2 · 0.22%Euro area: 2024 Q3 · 0.53%Euro area: 2024 Q4 · 0.32%Euro area: 2025 Q1 · 0.49%Euro area: 2025 Q2 · 0.02%Euro area: 2025 Q3 · 0.31%Euro area: 2025 Q4 · 0.22%Euro area: 2026 Q1 · -0.01%Euro area: 2026 Q2 · 0.63%Canada: 2022 Q1 · 1.04%Canada: 2022 Q2 · 1.14%Canada: 2022 Q3 · 0.81%Canada: 2022 Q4 · 0.06%Canada: 2023 Q1 · 1.05%Canada: 2023 Q2 · 0.16%Canada: 2023 Q3 · 0.05%Canada: 2023 Q4 · 0.05%Canada: 2024 Q1 · 0.73%Canada: 2024 Q2 · 0.82%Canada: 2024 Q3 · 0.82%Canada: 2024 Q4 · 0.70%Canada: 2025 Q1 · 0.72%Canada: 2025 Q2 · -0.24%Canada: 2025 Q3 · 0.47%Canada: 2025 Q4 · -0.25%Canada: 2026 Q1 · 0.08%Canada: 2026 Q2 · 0.82%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates quarter-on-quarter percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-09-07 4:03 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.63%
2026 Q1-0.01%
2025 Q40.22%
2025 Q30.31%
2025 Q20.02%
2025 Q10.49%
2024 Q40.32%
2024 Q30.53%
2024 Q20.22%
2024 Q10.43%
2023 Q4-0.00%
2023 Q30.18%
2023 Q20.19%
2023 Q1-0.21%
2022 Q4-0.05%
2022 Q30.54%
2022 Q20.94%
2022 Q10.75%

Canada

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for Canada

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Canada real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.82%
2026 Q10.08%
2025 Q4-0.25%
2025 Q30.47%
2025 Q2-0.24%
2025 Q10.72%
2024 Q40.70%
2024 Q30.82%
2024 Q20.82%
2024 Q10.73%
2023 Q40.05%
2023 Q30.05%
2023 Q20.16%
2023 Q11.05%
2022 Q40.06%
2022 Q30.81%
2022 Q21.14%
2022 Q11.04%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected EUR/CAD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · EUR/CAD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

CAD · BoCScheduled

Policy announcement date

Rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Overnight-rate target decision and Monetary Policy Report when scheduled

Official BoC calendar ↗
EUR · ECBScheduled

Policy announcement date

Governing Council monetary policy decision

What to watch

Deposit facility rate decision and monetary policy press conference

Official ECB calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · EUR/CAD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

EUR · ECB
Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting

ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path

The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.

What could change the outlook?

Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections

Official monetary policy decisions ↗
CAD · BoC
Rate hold · Watching inflation upside

BoC held at 2.25%, with more uncertainty around inflation

The Governing Council kept its overnight target unchanged, said upside inflation risks had increased, and remained prepared to adjust policy as needed. It did not announce a precommitted hike.

What could change the outlook?

Canadian inflation excluding energy, recovery durability and trade-policy effects

Official rate decision press release ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · EUR/CAD

Only BoC and ECB: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to EUR/CAD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

4 publications from the two banks in EUR/CAD.

CAD · BoC Minutes

BoC releases September policy deliberations

The Bank of Canada's Governing Council discussed inflation risks, high energy costs, trade uncertainty and economic activity before keeping the overnight target at 2.25%. The record reports deliberations, not a new rate change.

What this publication confirms: The council weighed elevated inflation risks against economic uncertainty.
Official BoC publication ↗
EUR · ECB Policy statement

ECB explains September monetary policy decision

The ECB's September monetary policy statement and Q&A explain the Governing Council's interest-rate decision and inflation outlook. This policy communication is separate from derivatives-market expectations.

What this publication confirms: Official reasoning behind the announced September policy decision.
Official ECB publication ↗
EUR · ECB Rate decision

ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50%

ECB raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected deposit facility rate is 2.50%. Effective 2026-09-16.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official ECB publication ↗
CAD · BoC Rate decision

BoC holds Target for overnight rate · 2.25%

BoC kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected target for overnight rate is 2.25%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official BoC publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for EUR/CAD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for EUR/CAD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the EUR/CAD Policy-Rate Gap Means

EUR/CAD compares the EUR (euro area) and CAD (Canada) monetary-policy benchmarks. EUR has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is +25 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For EUR, monitor euro-area inflation, growth indicators and ECB Governing Council communications. For CAD, monitor Canadian inflation, employment and Bank of Canada deliberations. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares ECB deposit facility rate against overnight-rate target. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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