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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · ECB / RBNZ

EUR/NZD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for European Central Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · EUR

ECB · European Central Bank

2.50%

Deposit facility rate

Effective 16 Sept 2026

Official ECB rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
-25 bp
NZD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 25 bp

This is not a forecast of the EUR/NZD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · NZD

RBNZ · Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%

Official Cash Rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official RBNZ rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

Euro area vs New Zealand

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind EUR/NZD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

Euro area · EUR 3.75%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 2.53%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
-1.1%2.1%5.3%8.5%11.7%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 4.88%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 4.97%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 5.11%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 5.88%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 7.44%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 7.45%Euro area: May 2022 · 8.05%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 8.64%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 8.86%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 9.15%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 9.93%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 10.62%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 10.05%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 9.20%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 8.64%Euro area: Feb 2023 · 8.50%Euro area: Mar 2023 · 6.88%Euro area: Apr 2023 · 6.94%Euro area: May 2023 · 6.10%Euro area: Jun 2023 · 5.51%Euro area: Jul 2023 · 5.28%Euro area: Aug 2023 · 5.21%Euro area: Sept 2023 · 4.32%Euro area: Oct 2023 · 2.87%Euro area: Nov 2023 · 2.37%Euro area: Dec 2023 · 2.90%Euro area: Jan 2024 · 2.76%Euro area: Feb 2024 · 2.57%Euro area: Mar 2024 · 2.41%Euro area: Apr 2024 · 2.35%Euro area: May 2024 · 2.55%Euro area: Jun 2024 · 2.50%Euro area: Jul 2024 · 2.58%Euro area: Aug 2024 · 2.16%Euro area: Sept 2024 · 1.73%Euro area: Oct 2024 · 1.99%Euro area: Nov 2024 · 2.23%Euro area: Dec 2024 · 2.43%Euro area: Jan 2025 · 2.50%Euro area: Feb 2025 · 2.30%Euro area: Mar 2025 · 2.17%Euro area: Apr 2025 · 2.16%Euro area: May 2025 · 1.86%Euro area: Jun 2025 · 1.96%Euro area: Jul 2025 · 2.01%Euro area: Aug 2025 · 2.02%Euro area: Sept 2025 · 2.22%Euro area: Oct 2025 · 2.08%Euro area: Nov 2025 · 2.11%Euro area: Dec 2025 · 1.93%Euro area: Jan 2026 · 1.64%Euro area: Feb 2026 · 1.87%Euro area: Mar 2026 · 2.53%Euro area: Apr 2026 · 3.00%Euro area: May 2026 · 3.14%Euro area: Jun 2026 · 2.73%Euro area: Jul 2026 · 2.93%Euro area: Aug 2026 · 3.23%Euro area: Sept 2026 · 3.75%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 6.93%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 7.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 7.23%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 7.22%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 6.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 5.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.66%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 3.33%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 2.15%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 2.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 2.53%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices: Total for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-16 7:44 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.75%
Aug 20263.23%
Jul 20262.93%
Jun 20262.73%
May 20263.14%
Apr 20263.00%
Mar 20262.53%
Feb 20261.87%
Jan 20261.64%
Dec 20251.93%
Nov 20252.11%
Oct 20252.08%
Sept 20252.22%
Aug 20252.02%
Jul 20252.01%
Jun 20251.96%
May 20251.86%
Apr 20252.16%
Mar 20252.17%
Feb 20252.30%
Jan 20252.50%
Dec 20242.43%
Nov 20242.23%
Oct 20241.99%
Sept 20241.73%
Aug 20242.16%
Jul 20242.58%
Jun 20242.50%
May 20242.55%
Apr 20242.35%
Mar 20242.41%
Feb 20242.57%
Jan 20242.76%
Dec 20232.90%
Nov 20232.37%
Oct 20232.87%
Sept 20234.32%
Aug 20235.21%
Jul 20235.28%
Jun 20235.51%
May 20236.10%
Apr 20236.94%
Mar 20236.88%
Feb 20238.50%
Jan 20238.64%
Dec 20229.20%
Nov 202210.05%
Oct 202210.62%
Sept 20229.93%
Aug 20229.15%
Jul 20228.86%
Jun 20228.64%
May 20228.05%
Apr 20227.45%
Mar 20227.44%
Feb 20225.88%
Jan 20225.11%
Dec 20214.97%
Nov 20214.88%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for New Zealand · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:16 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.53%
2024 Q42.22%
2024 Q32.15%
2024 Q23.33%
2024 Q14.02%
2023 Q44.66%
2023 Q35.65%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q16.65%
2022 Q47.22%
2022 Q37.23%
2022 Q27.30%
2022 Q16.93%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 6.70%Jan 2023 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 5.60%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.7%1.4%3.5%5.7%7.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: Nov 2021 · 7.10%Euro area: Dec 2021 · 7.00%Euro area: Jan 2022 · 6.90%Euro area: Feb 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Mar 2022 · 6.80%Euro area: Apr 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: May 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jun 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jul 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Aug 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Sept 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Oct 2022 · 6.60%Euro area: Nov 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Dec 2022 · 6.70%Euro area: Jan 2023 · 6.70%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 3.40%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 3.50%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 3.70%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 3.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.00%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.40%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 4.70%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 4.90%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 5.10%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 5.30%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 5.60%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Harmonised Unemployment - Monthly Rates: Total: All Persons for the Euro Area (19 Countries)

Source updated: 2023-03-15 1:15 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Jan 20236.70%
Dec 20226.70%
Nov 20226.70%
Oct 20226.60%
Sept 20226.70%
Aug 20226.70%
Jul 20226.70%
Jun 20226.70%
May 20226.70%
Apr 20226.70%
Mar 20226.80%
Feb 20226.80%
Jan 20226.90%
Dec 20217.00%
Nov 20217.10%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-08-17 3:04 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q25.60%
2026 Q15.40%
2025 Q45.40%
2025 Q35.30%
2025 Q25.20%
2025 Q15.20%
2024 Q45.10%
2024 Q34.90%
2024 Q24.70%
2024 Q14.40%
2023 Q44.00%
2023 Q33.90%
2023 Q23.70%
2023 Q13.50%
2022 Q43.40%
2022 Q33.30%
2022 Q23.30%
2022 Q13.30%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

Euro area · EUR 0.63%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
New Zealand · NZD 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.6%-0.5%0.6%1.7%2.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26Euro area: 2022 Q1 · 0.75%Euro area: 2022 Q2 · 0.94%Euro area: 2022 Q3 · 0.54%Euro area: 2022 Q4 · -0.05%Euro area: 2023 Q1 · -0.21%Euro area: 2023 Q2 · 0.19%Euro area: 2023 Q3 · 0.18%Euro area: 2023 Q4 · -0.00%Euro area: 2024 Q1 · 0.43%Euro area: 2024 Q2 · 0.22%Euro area: 2024 Q3 · 0.53%Euro area: 2024 Q4 · 0.32%Euro area: 2025 Q1 · 0.49%Euro area: 2025 Q2 · 0.02%Euro area: 2025 Q3 · 0.31%Euro area: 2025 Q4 · 0.22%Euro area: 2026 Q1 · -0.01%Euro area: 2026 Q2 · 0.63%New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 0.03%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 1.25%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 2.42%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 0.29%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · -0.28%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 0.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · -0.12%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 0.42%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · -0.18%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 0.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · -1.21%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 0.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 0.81%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · -0.47%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 1.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 0.34%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 1.05%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

Euro area

Eurostat via FRED ↗

Real Gross Domestic Product for Euro Area (19 Countries) · Trade90 calculates quarter-on-quarter percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-09-07 4:03 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

Euro area real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.63%
2026 Q1-0.01%
2025 Q40.22%
2025 Q30.31%
2025 Q20.02%
2025 Q10.49%
2024 Q40.32%
2024 Q30.53%
2024 Q20.22%
2024 Q10.43%
2023 Q4-0.00%
2023 Q30.18%
2023 Q20.19%
2023 Q1-0.21%
2022 Q4-0.05%
2022 Q30.54%
2022 Q20.94%
2022 Q10.75%

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q11.05%
2025 Q40.34%
2025 Q31.22%
2025 Q2-0.47%
2025 Q10.81%
2024 Q40.20%
2024 Q3-1.21%
2024 Q20.02%
2024 Q1-0.18%
2023 Q40.42%
2023 Q3-0.12%
2023 Q20.90%
2023 Q1-0.28%
2022 Q40.29%
2022 Q32.42%
2022 Q21.25%
2022 Q10.03%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected EUR/NZD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · EUR/NZD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

NZD · RBNZScheduled

Policy announcement date

OCR decision and Monetary Policy Review

What to watch

Official Cash Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Review or Statement

Official RBNZ calendar ↗
EUR · ECBScheduled

Policy announcement date

Governing Council monetary policy decision

What to watch

Deposit facility rate decision and monetary policy press conference

Official ECB calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · EUR/NZD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

EUR · ECB
Data-dependent · Meeting by meeting

ECB commits to inflation target, not a predetermined rate path

The Governing Council assesses inflation and economic data at each meeting; its communication does not commit to a specific future policy-rate trajectory.

What could change the outlook?

Euro-area inflation, wage growth and the ECB's updated projections

Official monetary policy decisions ↗
NZD · RBNZ
Conditional further tightening projected

RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases

The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.

What could change the outlook?

New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement

Official Monetary Policy Statement ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · EUR/NZD

Only ECB and RBNZ: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to EUR/NZD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

4 publications from the two banks in EUR/NZD.

EUR · ECB Policy statement

ECB explains September monetary policy decision

The ECB's September monetary policy statement and Q&A explain the Governing Council's interest-rate decision and inflation outlook. This policy communication is separate from derivatives-market expectations.

What this publication confirms: Official reasoning behind the announced September policy decision.
Official ECB publication ↗
EUR · ECB Rate decision

ECB raises Deposit facility rate · 2.50%

ECB raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected deposit facility rate is 2.50%. Effective 2026-09-16.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official ECB publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Rate decision

RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate · 2.75%

RBNZ raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected official cash rate is 2.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Policy report

RBNZ publishes September Monetary Policy Statement

The RBNZ explained its decision to increase the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, alongside its assessment of inflation, economic activity and risks. Its policy projections are not identical to market-implied rates.

What this publication confirms: Official inflation and activity outlook alongside the OCR decision.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for EUR/NZD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for EUR/NZD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the EUR/NZD Policy-Rate Gap Means

EUR/NZD compares the EUR (euro area) and NZD (New Zealand) monetary-policy benchmarks. NZD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is -25 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For EUR, monitor euro-area inflation, growth indicators and ECB Governing Council communications. For NZD, monitor New Zealand CPI, labour data and RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares ECB deposit facility rate against Official Cash Rate. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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