MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · BoE / Fed

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Bank of England and Federal Reserve. Updated from the verified snapshot dated 15 Oct 2026.

Explore all pairs →

BASE · GBP

BoE · Bank of England

3.75%

Bank Rate

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official BoE rate source ↗

SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP

-12.5 bp

USD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 12.5 bp

This is not a forecast of the GBP/USD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · USD

Fed · Federal Reserve

3.875%

Federal funds target range midpoint

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official Fed rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

United Kingdom vs United States

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind GBP/USD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

United Kingdom · GBP 3.42%Mar 2025 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

United States · USD 3.74%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for United Kingdom · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:18 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Mar 2025	3.42%
Feb 2025	3.67%
Jan 2025	3.92%
Dec 2024	3.52%
Nov 2024	3.54%
Oct 2024	3.15%
Sept 2024	2.61%
Aug 2024	3.09%
Jul 2024	3.02%
Jun 2024	2.78%
May 2024	2.79%
Apr 2024	3.04%
Mar 2024	3.79%
Feb 2024	3.81%
Jan 2024	4.17%
Dec 2023	4.15%
Nov 2023	4.17%
Oct 2023	4.75%
Sept 2023	6.38%
Aug 2023	6.24%
Jul 2023	6.44%
Jun 2023	7.39%
May 2023	7.85%
Apr 2023	7.82%
Mar 2023	8.84%
Feb 2023	9.19%
Jan 2023	8.90%
Dec 2022	9.24%
Nov 2022	9.38%
Oct 2022	9.61%
Sept 2022	8.81%
Aug 2022	8.65%
Jul 2022	8.80%
Jun 2022	8.17%
May 2022	7.84%
Apr 2022	7.79%
Mar 2022	6.20%
Feb 2022	5.48%
Jan 2022	4.85%
Dec 2021	4.84%
Nov 2021	4.58%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-14 8:08 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States inflation — selected range
Period	Value
Sept 2026	3.74%
Aug 2026	3.40%
Jul 2026	3.36%
Jun 2026	3.53%
May 2026	4.25%
Apr 2026	3.81%
Mar 2026	3.26%
Feb 2026	2.41%
Jan 2026	2.39%
Dec 2025	2.68%
Nov 2025	2.74%
Sept 2025	3.01%
Aug 2025	2.92%
Jul 2025	2.70%
Jun 2025	2.67%
May 2025	2.35%
Apr 2025	2.31%
Mar 2025	2.39%
Feb 2025	2.82%
Jan 2025	3.00%
Dec 2024	2.89%
Nov 2024	2.75%
Oct 2024	2.60%
Sept 2024	2.44%
Aug 2024	2.53%
Jul 2024	2.89%
Jun 2024	2.97%
May 2024	3.27%
Apr 2024	3.36%
Mar 2024	3.48%
Feb 2024	3.15%
Jan 2024	3.09%
Dec 2023	3.35%
Nov 2023	3.14%
Oct 2023	3.24%
Sept 2023	3.70%
Aug 2023	3.67%
Jul 2023	3.18%
Jun 2023	2.97%
May 2023	4.05%
Apr 2023	4.93%
Mar 2023	4.98%
Feb 2023	6.04%
Jan 2023	6.41%
Dec 2022	6.45%
Nov 2022	7.11%
Oct 2022	7.75%
Sept 2022	8.20%
Aug 2022	8.26%
Jul 2022	8.52%
Jun 2022	9.06%
May 2022	8.58%
Apr 2022	8.26%
Mar 2022	8.54%
Feb 2022	7.87%
Jan 2022	7.48%
Dec 2021	7.04%
Nov 2021	6.81%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

United Kingdom · GBP 4.90%Jun 2026 · Monthly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history

United States · USD 4.20%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Jun 2026	4.90%
May 2026	4.90%
Apr 2026	4.90%
Mar 2026	4.90%
Feb 2026	5.00%
Jan 2026	4.90%
Dec 2025	5.20%
Nov 2025	5.20%
Oct 2025	5.10%
Sept 2025	5.10%
Aug 2025	5.00%
Jul 2025	4.80%
Jun 2025	4.70%
May 2025	4.70%
Apr 2025	4.70%
Mar 2025	4.60%
Feb 2025	4.60%
Jan 2025	4.50%
Dec 2024	4.40%
Nov 2024	4.40%
Oct 2024	4.40%
Sept 2024	4.20%
Aug 2024	4.30%
Jul 2024	4.10%
Jun 2024	4.20%
May 2024	4.20%
Apr 2024	4.40%
Mar 2024	4.40%
Feb 2024	4.30%
Jan 2024	4.20%
Dec 2023	4.10%
Nov 2023	3.90%
Oct 2023	4.00%
Sept 2023	4.00%
Aug 2023	4.10%
Jul 2023	4.30%
Jun 2023	4.40%
May 2023	4.20%
Apr 2023	4.00%
Mar 2023	3.90%
Feb 2023	4.00%
Jan 2023	4.00%
Dec 2022	3.90%
Nov 2022	3.90%
Oct 2022	3.90%
Sept 2022	3.80%
Aug 2022	3.70%
Jul 2022	3.60%
Jun 2022	3.60%
May 2022	3.80%
Apr 2022	3.70%
Mar 2022	3.80%
Feb 2022	3.80%
Jan 2022	3.90%
Dec 2021	4.10%
Nov 2021	4.20%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Unemployment Rate

Source updated: 2026-10-02 8:24 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States unemployment — selected range
Period	Value
Sept 2026	4.20%
Aug 2026	4.10%
Jul 2026	4.10%
Jun 2026	4.20%
May 2026	4.30%
Apr 2026	4.30%
Mar 2026	4.30%
Feb 2026	4.40%
Jan 2026	4.30%
Dec 2025	4.40%
Nov 2025	4.50%
Sept 2025	4.40%
Aug 2025	4.30%
Jul 2025	4.30%
Jun 2025	4.10%
May 2025	4.30%
Apr 2025	4.20%
Mar 2025	4.20%
Feb 2025	4.20%
Jan 2025	4.00%
Dec 2024	4.10%
Nov 2024	4.20%
Oct 2024	4.10%
Sept 2024	4.10%
Aug 2024	4.20%
Jul 2024	4.20%
Jun 2024	4.10%
May 2024	3.90%
Apr 2024	3.90%
Mar 2024	3.90%
Feb 2024	3.90%
Jan 2024	3.70%
Dec 2023	3.80%
Nov 2023	3.70%
Oct 2023	3.90%
Sept 2023	3.70%
Aug 2023	3.70%
Jul 2023	3.50%
Jun 2023	3.60%
May 2023	3.60%
Apr 2023	3.40%
Mar 2023	3.50%
Feb 2023	3.60%
Jan 2023	3.50%
Dec 2022	3.50%
Nov 2022	3.60%
Oct 2022	3.60%
Sept 2022	3.50%
Aug 2022	3.60%
Jul 2022	3.50%
Jun 2022	3.60%
May 2022	3.60%
Apr 2022	3.70%
Mar 2022	3.70%
Feb 2022	3.90%
Jan 2022	4.00%
Dec 2021	3.90%
Nov 2021	4.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

United Kingdom · GBP 0.53%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

United States · USD 0.55%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

United Kingdom

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United Kingdom

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:42 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United Kingdom real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.53%
2026 Q1	0.64%
2025 Q4	0.01%
2025 Q3	0.18%
2025 Q2	0.01%
2025 Q1	0.60%
2024 Q4	0.36%
2024 Q3	0.17%
2024 Q2	0.62%
2024 Q1	0.73%
2023 Q4	-0.26%
2023 Q3	-0.16%
2023 Q2	0.04%
2023 Q1	0.15%
2022 Q4	0.29%
2022 Q3	0.10%
2022 Q2	0.56%
2022 Q1	0.86%

United States

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States real gdp growth — selected range
Period	Value
2026 Q2	0.55%
2026 Q1	0.62%
2025 Q4	0.05%
2025 Q3	0.96%
2025 Q2	0.99%
2025 Q1	0.04%
2024 Q4	0.60%
2024 Q3	0.78%
2024 Q2	0.88%
2024 Q1	0.36%
2023 Q4	0.90%
2023 Q3	1.11%
2023 Q2	0.54%
2023 Q1	0.83%
2022 Q4	0.67%
2022 Q3	0.67%
2022 Q2	0.14%
2022 Q1	-0.25%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected GBP/USD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…

Policy calendar · GBP/USD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

USD · FedScheduled

28 Oct 2026

Meeting: 27 Oct 2026–28 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

FOMC policy decision

What to watch

Interest-rate decision, FOMC statement and Chair's press conference

Official Fed calendar ↗

GBP · BoEScheduled

5 Nov 2026

Policy announcement date

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

What to watch

Bank Rate decision, MPC vote and Monetary Policy Report

Official BoE calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · GBP/USD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

GBP · BoE17 Sept 2026

Rate hold · Upside inflation risks

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

The September MPC maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by 6–3. It highlighted energy-driven upside inflation risks and said it stood ready to act if necessary.

What could change the outlook?

UK CPI, wage-setting effects from energy prices, jobs and MPC votes

MPC summary and minutes ↗

USD · Fed16 Sept 2026

Recent rate increase · No fixed future path

Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase

The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.

What could change the outlook?

US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections

Official FOMC statement ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · GBP/USD

Only Fed and BoE: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to GBP/USD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

3 publications from the two banks in GBP/USD.

USD · Fed Minutes 7 Oct 2026

Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. Minutes describe policymakers' discussion at the time of the meeting; they are not a new interest-rate decision or a new forward-rate quote.

What this publication confirms: Meeting discussion, not a fresh rate change.

Official Fed publication ↗

GBP · BoE Rate decision 17 Sept 2026

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

BoE kept its benchmark rate unchanged; Trade90's selected bank rate is 3.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official BoE publication ↗

USD · Fed Rate decision 16 Sept 2026

Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875%

Fed raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected federal funds target range midpoint is 3.875%. Effective 2026-09-17.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.

Official Fed publication ↗

AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for GBP/USD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for GBP/USD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…

Interpretation & sources

What the GBP/USD Policy-Rate Gap Means

GBP/USD compares the GBP (United Kingdom) and USD (United States) monetary-policy benchmarks. USD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is -12.5 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For GBP, monitor UK inflation, wage growth and Monetary Policy Committee votes. For USD, monitor US inflation, payrolls, Fed communications and Treasury-market repricing. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares Bank Rate against Federal funds target range midpoint. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

7 Oct 2026 · Fed: Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting ↗
17 Sept 2026 · BoE: BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75% ↗
16 Sept 2026 · Fed: Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875% ↗

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

BoE · Bank of England

Fed · Federal Reserve

United Kingdom vs United States

Inflation

United Kingdom

United States

Unemployment

United Kingdom

United States

Real GDP growth

United Kingdom

United States

Expected GBP/USD Rate Divergence

FOMC policy decision

MPC rate decision and Monetary Policy Report

Six MPC members held; three preferred a 25 bp hike

Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase

Central Bank Policy Updates · GBP/USD

Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting

BoE holds Bank Rate · 3.75%

Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875%

Recent publication links for GBP/USD

What the GBP/USD Policy-Rate Gap Means

What could change the relative policy outlook?

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Explore related currency pairs