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MONETARY POLICY RESEARCH · RBNZ / Fed

NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis

Official policy-rate comparison for Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Federal Reserve. Updated from the verified snapshot dated .

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BASE · NZD

RBNZ · Reserve Bank of New Zealand

2.75%

Official Cash Rate

Effective 2 Sept 2026

Official RBNZ rate source ↗
SIGNED BASE − QUOTE GAP
-112.5 bp
USD has the higher selected benchmark

Absolute difference: 112.5 bp

This is not a forecast of the NZD/USD exchange rate or actual broker swap yield.

QUOTE · USD

Fed · Federal Reserve

3.875%

Federal funds target range midpoint

Effective 17 Sept 2026

Official Fed rate source ↗

Rates are from the verified 15 Oct 2026 snapshot; updates are currently curated, not live. Review sources, update frequency and licensing →

ECONOMIC COMPARISON

New Zealand vs United States

Compare inflation, jobs and growth behind NZD/USD.

Published economic observations, not live prices. Each line keeps its original reporting frequency. Missing observations are not estimated.

Inflation

Headline CPI · year-on-year %

New Zealand · NZD 2.53%2025 Q1 · Quarterly Older series — latest available observation Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 3.74%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.9%1.8%4.5%7.2%10.0%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 6.93%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 7.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 7.23%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 7.22%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 6.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 6.03%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 5.65%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.66%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 3.33%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 2.15%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 2.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 2.53%United States: Nov 2021 · 6.81%United States: Dec 2021 · 7.04%United States: Jan 2022 · 7.48%United States: Feb 2022 · 7.87%United States: Mar 2022 · 8.54%United States: Apr 2022 · 8.26%United States: May 2022 · 8.58%United States: Jun 2022 · 9.06%United States: Jul 2022 · 8.52%United States: Aug 2022 · 8.26%United States: Sept 2022 · 8.20%United States: Oct 2022 · 7.75%United States: Nov 2022 · 7.11%United States: Dec 2022 · 6.45%United States: Jan 2023 · 6.41%United States: Feb 2023 · 6.04%United States: Mar 2023 · 4.98%United States: Apr 2023 · 4.93%United States: May 2023 · 4.05%United States: Jun 2023 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.18%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.67%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.24%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.14%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.35%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.09%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.15%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.48%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.36%United States: May 2024 · 3.27%United States: Jun 2024 · 2.97%United States: Jul 2024 · 2.89%United States: Aug 2024 · 2.53%United States: Sept 2024 · 2.44%United States: Oct 2024 · 2.60%United States: Nov 2024 · 2.75%United States: Dec 2024 · 2.89%United States: Jan 2025 · 3.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 2.82%United States: Mar 2025 · 2.39%United States: Apr 2025 · 2.31%United States: May 2025 · 2.35%United States: Jun 2025 · 2.67%United States: Jul 2025 · 2.70%United States: Aug 2025 · 2.92%United States: Sept 2025 · 3.01%United States: Nov 2025 · 2.74%United States: Dec 2025 · 2.68%United States: Jan 2026 · 2.39%United States: Feb 2026 · 2.41%United States: Mar 2026 · 3.26%United States: Apr 2026 · 3.81%United States: May 2026 · 4.25%United States: Jun 2026 · 3.53%United States: Jul 2026 · 3.36%United States: Aug 2026 · 3.40%United States: Sept 2026 · 3.74%

National headline CPI; euro area uses HICP. Baskets and national methods differ. Quarterly readings remain quarterly.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Indices (CPIs, HICPs), COICOP 1999: Consumer Price Index: Total for New Zealand · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2025-05-15 2:16 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
2025 Q12.53%
2024 Q42.22%
2024 Q32.15%
2024 Q23.33%
2024 Q14.02%
2023 Q44.66%
2023 Q35.65%
2023 Q26.03%
2023 Q16.65%
2022 Q47.22%
2022 Q37.23%
2022 Q27.30%
2022 Q16.93%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average · Trade90 calculates year-on-year percentage change from the source index.

Source updated: 2026-10-14 8:08 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States inflation — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20263.74%
Aug 20263.40%
Jul 20263.36%
Jun 20263.53%
May 20264.25%
Apr 20263.81%
Mar 20263.26%
Feb 20262.41%
Jan 20262.39%
Dec 20252.68%
Nov 20252.74%
Sept 20253.01%
Aug 20252.92%
Jul 20252.70%
Jun 20252.67%
May 20252.35%
Apr 20252.31%
Mar 20252.39%
Feb 20252.82%
Jan 20253.00%
Dec 20242.89%
Nov 20242.75%
Oct 20242.60%
Sept 20242.44%
Aug 20242.53%
Jul 20242.89%
Jun 20242.97%
May 20243.27%
Apr 20243.36%
Mar 20243.48%
Feb 20243.15%
Jan 20243.09%
Dec 20233.35%
Nov 20233.14%
Oct 20233.24%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.67%
Jul 20233.18%
Jun 20232.97%
May 20234.05%
Apr 20234.93%
Mar 20234.98%
Feb 20236.04%
Jan 20236.41%
Dec 20226.45%
Nov 20227.11%
Oct 20227.75%
Sept 20228.20%
Aug 20228.26%
Jul 20228.52%
Jun 20229.06%
May 20228.58%
Apr 20228.26%
Mar 20228.54%
Feb 20227.87%
Jan 20227.48%
Dec 20217.04%
Nov 20216.81%

Unemployment

% of labour force · seasonally adjusted

New Zealand · NZD 5.60%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 4.20%Sept 2026 · Monthly Refresh failed · saved history
-0.6%1.1%2.8%4.5%6.2%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 3.30%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 3.40%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · 3.50%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 3.70%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · 3.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 4.00%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · 4.40%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 4.70%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · 4.90%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 5.10%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · 5.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 5.30%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 5.40%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 5.60%United States: Nov 2021 · 4.10%United States: Dec 2021 · 3.90%United States: Jan 2022 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2022 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2022 · 3.70%United States: Apr 2022 · 3.70%United States: May 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2022 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2022 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2022 · 3.60%United States: Sept 2022 · 3.50%United States: Oct 2022 · 3.60%United States: Nov 2022 · 3.60%United States: Dec 2022 · 3.50%United States: Jan 2023 · 3.50%United States: Feb 2023 · 3.60%United States: Mar 2023 · 3.50%United States: Apr 2023 · 3.40%United States: May 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jun 2023 · 3.60%United States: Jul 2023 · 3.50%United States: Aug 2023 · 3.70%United States: Sept 2023 · 3.70%United States: Oct 2023 · 3.90%United States: Nov 2023 · 3.70%United States: Dec 2023 · 3.80%United States: Jan 2024 · 3.70%United States: Feb 2024 · 3.90%United States: Mar 2024 · 3.90%United States: Apr 2024 · 3.90%United States: May 2024 · 3.90%United States: Jun 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2024 · 4.20%United States: Aug 2024 · 4.20%United States: Sept 2024 · 4.10%United States: Oct 2024 · 4.10%United States: Nov 2024 · 4.20%United States: Dec 2024 · 4.10%United States: Jan 2025 · 4.00%United States: Feb 2025 · 4.20%United States: Mar 2025 · 4.20%United States: Apr 2025 · 4.20%United States: May 2025 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2025 · 4.10%United States: Jul 2025 · 4.30%United States: Aug 2025 · 4.30%United States: Sept 2025 · 4.40%United States: Nov 2025 · 4.50%United States: Dec 2025 · 4.40%United States: Jan 2026 · 4.30%United States: Feb 2026 · 4.40%United States: Mar 2026 · 4.30%United States: Apr 2026 · 4.30%United States: May 2026 · 4.30%United States: Jun 2026 · 4.20%United States: Jul 2026 · 4.10%United States: Aug 2026 · 4.10%United States: Sept 2026 · 4.20%

OECD labour-force survey measure. Switzerland and New Zealand report quarterly; other economies report monthly. National age coverage can differ.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Monthly Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-08-17 3:04 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q25.60%
2026 Q15.40%
2025 Q45.40%
2025 Q35.30%
2025 Q25.20%
2025 Q15.20%
2024 Q45.10%
2024 Q34.90%
2024 Q24.70%
2024 Q14.40%
2023 Q44.00%
2023 Q33.90%
2023 Q23.70%
2023 Q13.50%
2022 Q43.40%
2022 Q33.30%
2022 Q23.30%
2022 Q13.30%

United States

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED ↗

Unemployment Rate

Source updated: 2026-10-02 8:24 AM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States unemployment — selected range
PeriodValue
Sept 20264.20%
Aug 20264.10%
Jul 20264.10%
Jun 20264.20%
May 20264.30%
Apr 20264.30%
Mar 20264.30%
Feb 20264.40%
Jan 20264.30%
Dec 20254.40%
Nov 20254.50%
Sept 20254.40%
Aug 20254.30%
Jul 20254.30%
Jun 20254.10%
May 20254.30%
Apr 20254.20%
Mar 20254.20%
Feb 20254.20%
Jan 20254.00%
Dec 20244.10%
Nov 20244.20%
Oct 20244.10%
Sept 20244.10%
Aug 20244.20%
Jul 20244.20%
Jun 20244.10%
May 20243.90%
Apr 20243.90%
Mar 20243.90%
Feb 20243.90%
Jan 20243.70%
Dec 20233.80%
Nov 20233.70%
Oct 20233.90%
Sept 20233.70%
Aug 20233.70%
Jul 20233.50%
Jun 20233.60%
May 20233.60%
Apr 20233.40%
Mar 20233.50%
Feb 20233.60%
Jan 20233.50%
Dec 20223.50%
Nov 20223.60%
Oct 20223.60%
Sept 20223.50%
Aug 20223.60%
Jul 20223.50%
Jun 20223.60%
May 20223.60%
Apr 20223.70%
Mar 20223.70%
Feb 20223.90%
Jan 20224.00%
Dec 20213.90%
Nov 20214.10%

Real GDP growth

Quarter-on-quarter % · seasonally adjusted

New Zealand · NZD 0.36%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
United States · USD 0.55%2026 Q2 · Quarterly Refresh failed · saved history
-1.6%-0.5%0.6%1.7%2.8%Oct 21Jan 23Apr 24Jul 25Oct 26New Zealand: 2022 Q1 · 0.03%New Zealand: 2022 Q2 · 1.25%New Zealand: 2022 Q3 · 2.42%New Zealand: 2022 Q4 · 0.29%New Zealand: 2023 Q1 · -0.28%New Zealand: 2023 Q2 · 0.90%New Zealand: 2023 Q3 · -0.12%New Zealand: 2023 Q4 · 0.42%New Zealand: 2024 Q1 · -0.18%New Zealand: 2024 Q2 · 0.02%New Zealand: 2024 Q3 · -1.21%New Zealand: 2024 Q4 · 0.20%New Zealand: 2025 Q1 · 0.81%New Zealand: 2025 Q2 · -0.47%New Zealand: 2025 Q3 · 1.22%New Zealand: 2025 Q4 · 0.34%New Zealand: 2026 Q1 · 1.05%New Zealand: 2026 Q2 · 0.36%United States: 2022 Q1 · -0.25%United States: 2022 Q2 · 0.14%United States: 2022 Q3 · 0.67%United States: 2022 Q4 · 0.67%United States: 2023 Q1 · 0.83%United States: 2023 Q2 · 0.54%United States: 2023 Q3 · 1.11%United States: 2023 Q4 · 0.90%United States: 2024 Q1 · 0.36%United States: 2024 Q2 · 0.88%United States: 2024 Q3 · 0.78%United States: 2024 Q4 · 0.60%United States: 2025 Q1 · 0.04%United States: 2025 Q2 · 0.99%United States: 2025 Q3 · 0.96%United States: 2025 Q4 · 0.05%United States: 2026 Q1 · 0.62%United States: 2026 Q2 · 0.55%

Real output growth from the previous quarter, not annualised. Euro area uses the 19-country aggregate. Revisions may change historical values.

Sources & exact observations

New Zealand

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for New Zealand

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

New Zealand real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.36%
2026 Q11.05%
2025 Q40.34%
2025 Q31.22%
2025 Q2-0.47%
2025 Q10.81%
2024 Q40.20%
2024 Q3-1.21%
2024 Q20.02%
2024 Q1-0.18%
2023 Q40.42%
2023 Q3-0.12%
2023 Q20.90%
2023 Q1-0.28%
2022 Q40.29%
2022 Q32.42%
2022 Q21.25%
2022 Q10.03%

United States

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development via FRED ↗

National Accounts: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Prices: Gross Domestic Product: Total for United States

Source updated: 2026-10-15 3:41 PM CDT
Retrieved: 2026-10-18

United States real gdp growth — selected range
PeriodValue
2026 Q20.55%
2026 Q10.62%
2025 Q40.05%
2025 Q30.96%
2025 Q20.99%
2025 Q10.04%
2024 Q40.60%
2024 Q30.78%
2024 Q20.88%
2024 Q10.36%
2023 Q40.90%
2023 Q31.11%
2023 Q20.54%
2023 Q10.83%
2022 Q40.67%
2022 Q30.67%
2022 Q20.14%
2022 Q1-0.25%

Sources: OECD, Eurostat and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, retrieved through the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). Data may be revised. Refresh check: 2026-10-18. Higher or lower readings alone do not determine currency direction.

Market data availability

Expected NZD/USD Rate Divergence

Market-implied policy-rate differences require validated, appropriately licensed forward inputs for both currencies. No fabricated forecasts.

Checking forward-rate source availability…
Policy calendar · NZD/USD

Next Major Decisions to Watch

The next scheduled monetary-policy announcement for each of the two central banks in this pair. Dates are official schedules, not forecasts of rate increases or cuts.

NZD · RBNZScheduled

Policy announcement date

OCR decision and Monetary Policy Review

What to watch

Official Cash Rate announcement and Monetary Policy Review or Statement

Official RBNZ calendar ↗
USD · FedScheduled

Meeting: 27 Oct 2026–28 Oct 2026 · Decision on final day

FOMC policy decision

What to watch

Interest-rate decision, FOMC statement and Chair's press conference

Official Fed calendar ↗

Schedules checked 15 Oct 2026. Central banks may reschedule meetings or announce unscheduled decisions. For the newest schedule, use the linked official calendars.

Official statements · NZD/USD

Central Bank Policy Outlook & Forward Guidance

Compare what the two central banks have actually communicated. These are dated summaries of official policy, not market-priced rate expectations or trade recommendations.

NZD · RBNZ
Conditional further tightening projected

RBNZ projections allowed for further OCR increases

The September Monetary Policy Statement projected further OCR increases conditional on its central economic outlook, to bring inflation back toward 2%. This is the bank's conditional projection, not a market-implied quote.

What could change the outlook?

New Zealand CPI, demand and labour-market data; new OCR path in the next policy statement

Official Monetary Policy Statement ↗
USD · Fed
Recent rate increase · No fixed future path

Inflation remains elevated after September rate increase

The FOMC increased its target range to 3.75–4.00% and emphasized its 2% inflation objective. The statement did not promise a specific move at the next meeting.

What could change the outlook?

US CPI and employment trends; the next FOMC statement and economic projections

Official FOMC statement ↗

Review date: 16 Oct 2026. Different central-bank statements are not directly comparable forecasts. The next policy decision may materially change the guidance.

Official central-bank publications

Central Bank Policy Updates · NZD/USD

Only Fed and RBNZ: official decisions, minutes and policy publications relevant to NZD/USD. No unrelated currencies.

Last curated review: 15 Oct 2026 · Dated source collection — not a live news feed

4 publications from the two banks in NZD/USD.

USD · Fed Minutes

Fed publishes minutes from September 15–16 FOMC meeting

The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September monetary policy meeting. Minutes describe policymakers' discussion at the time of the meeting; they are not a new interest-rate decision or a new forward-rate quote.

What this publication confirms: Meeting discussion, not a fresh rate change.
Official Fed publication ↗
USD · Fed Rate decision

Fed raises Federal funds target range midpoint · 3.875%

Fed raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected federal funds target range midpoint is 3.875%. Effective 2026-09-17.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official Fed publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Rate decision

RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate · 2.75%

RBNZ raised its benchmark rate; Trade90's selected official cash rate is 2.75%. Effective from the decision date.

What this publication confirms: Official policy benchmark, not a market-implied future rate.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
NZD · RBNZ Policy report

RBNZ publishes September Monetary Policy Statement

The RBNZ explained its decision to increase the Official Cash Rate to 2.75%, alongside its assessment of inflation, economic activity and risks. Its policy projections are not identical to market-implied rates.

What this publication confirms: Official inflation and activity outlook alongside the OCR decision.
Official RBNZ publication ↗
AUTOMATED OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recent publication links for NZD/USD

Links detected from official bank publication channels. A new publication is not necessarily an interest-rate decision and is not a verified policy-rate change.

Loading recent source scan…

Automatically collected links are shown for reference, not verified AI-written summaries or streaming data. For rate and source-quality definitions, see TRADE90's data policy.

AUTOMATIC OFFICIAL SOURCE WATCH

Recently detected central-bank publications

Links detected on official bank websites for NZD/USD. Titles are from the original sources. TRADE90 does not treat link discovery as confirmation of a new interest rate.

Checking the official-source archive…
Interpretation & sources

What the NZD/USD Policy-Rate Gap Means

NZD/USD compares the NZD (New Zealand) and USD (United States) monetary-policy benchmarks. USD has the higher selected official policy-rate benchmark in Trade90's 15 Oct 2026 snapshot. The signed base-minus-quote gap is -112.5 basis points; this is a comparison of official policy levels, not a currency-price signal.

What could change the relative policy outlook?

For NZD, monitor New Zealand CPI, labour data and RBNZ Monetary Policy Statements. For USD, monitor US inflation, payrolls, Fed communications and Treasury-market repricing. A change in future market expectations may move an exchange rate even while the current official policy gap remains unchanged.

Why this gap is not a trade recommendation

Trade90 compares Official Cash Rate against Federal funds target range midpoint. Each country defines its policy benchmark differently. The signed difference is not an FX forward, an investable interest-rate spread, or a broker's overnight swap charge.

Current decisions and forward market pricing answer different questions. A CPI or labour-market release can change futures-implied expectations without changing an official benchmark. Trade90 does not infer a buy/sell signal from a policy gap. Read the rate-gap methodology and guide to market-implied expectations.

Latest dated official publications for this pair

Continue your research

Use the forex fundamental analysis checklist to compare the two economies, read how interest-rate differentials work, and model trade risk with the forex position size calculator.

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